China treads complex path between North and South Korea as nuclear risk rises

Beijing’s Korean peninsula headache could worsen if Pyongyang-Moscow October surprise affects the US election, experts warn

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Observers hope China can help rein in North Korea ahead of possible further provocations by Pyongyang before the US election in November. Photo: AFP

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 11:59pm, 5 Jul 2024Updated: 2:16pm, 7 Jul 2024

Corrected [2:14pm, 7 Jul, 2024]

[2:14pm, 7 Jul, 2024]
An earlier version of this story said a Soviet-era bridge located downstream of the river was less than 100 metres tall. It is less than 10 metres.

As tit-for-tat tensions continue to heat up on the Korean peninsula, Beijing is facing a complex dilemma in its dealings with both Pyongyang and Seoul amid risks of a looming nuclear crisis.

Observers warn there is “a significant possibility” of further provocations by Pyongyang ahead of the US election in November and called on China to step up efforts to help rein in North Korea before any escalation.

Compounding matters, Beijing is also wary of Pyongyang’s deepening military pact with Moscow – which analysts say may be detrimental to China’s interests – following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to North Korea last month.

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Tensions that have simmered since 2022 over Pyongyang’s accelerated missile tests flared in January, when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ditched his predecessor’s goal of reconciliation and Korean reunification and declared Seoul to be his regime’s “principal enemy”.

After a bombardment of trash-carrying balloons from its northern neighbour over the past month, Seoul suspended a 2018 tension-reducing agreement and resumed anti-Pyongyang loudspeaker broadcasts in border areas.

South Korea also conducted its first live-fire drills with its ally the US in seven years, using precision-guided bunker-buster bombs.

Joseph Yun, a senior adviser at the US Institute of Peace – and US special representative for North Korea policy between 2016 and 2018 – described the situation on the Korean peninsula as “dangerous”.

“I don’t think we can rule out any provocation soon,” he said, adding that historically during American presidential election years, Pyongyang had tried various things, including testing weapons, to provoke Washington.