Mainland China’s security focus may indicate plans for Taiwan attack, analysts say

Mainland China’s intense focus on security, “all of society” campaigns against foreign spies and stockpiling of food and energy may be rooted in domestic concerns but could eventually double as forward indicators of an imminent attack on Taiwan, witnesses told a US congressional commission on Thursday.

“It is of supreme importance that we develop a deep understanding of China’s preparations for conflict and can discern when they are preparing to make a move,” said Clifton Sims, a former deputy director of national intelligence during the Donald Trump administration.

“We do not want war,” Sims, a member of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which held the hearing, added. “But in the event that China makes an unprovoked, unjust and ill-advised decision to break the peace, we must be able to win.”

The hearing follows growing tension in the Indo-Pacific, US moves to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains and Washington concerns that high-end US semiconductor exports to China are being increasingly diverted for military purposes.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary. The US, like many other countries, does not recognize the island independent but is opposed any change of the cross-strait status quo and is committed to supply weapons to Taiwan.

Beijing’s domestic messaging about the need for “struggle” and maintaining “vigilance” against foreign forces currently appears more directed at stemming domestic tensions given the Chinese economy’s difficulties – which include a meltdown in the real estate sector and chronic unemployment – rather than signs of any imminent plan to launch military attacks against Taiwan.