Advertisement
Myanmar
ChinaDiplomacy

China plays peacemaker in Myanmar but high expectations, ‘trust issues’ and belt and road projects thwart progress

  • Beijing is ‘only viable peacemaker’ in conflict between junta and rebel groups, but ‘zero-sum’ thinking makes lasting truce unlikely, analyst says
  • Infrastructure investments, cybercrime and speculation in Naypyidaw about Beijing’s position complicate ceasefire talks

Reading Time:5 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
2
The People’s Defence Forces, backed by Myanmar’s shadow government, have cooperated with the Three Brotherhood Alliance to attack the country’s military junta. Photo: AFP
Kawala Xie

Three years after it seized power, Myanmar’s military junta faces a huge challenge as ethnic insurgent groups rebel across the country.

Advertisement
The Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of three armed rebel groups – has taken control of more than a dozen towns and trade ports in Myanmar’s northern Shan state. It has also made advances in Rakhine state despite a ceasefire agreement brokered by China.
Beijing, which is seen to have considerable influence over both sides in the conflict, has facilitated peace talks in southwest China’s Yunnan province in recent months. Through these meetings, the junta and the rebels agreed to suspend fighting. But the truce fell apart as the two sides continued to fight and the rebels gained more territory.

Observers say Beijing is likely to continue using its influence to seek a permanent ceasefire because it sees stability as a priority, but the divergent interests of the parties could complicate these efforts.

Zhou Shixin, a Southeast Asia specialist at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the fact that China had been able to broker a ceasefire during talks in Yunnan last month indicated the warring sides were willing to talk, but the truces were short-lived and fragile given the volatile situation.

Advertisement

“The window for peace is very short, and the window for maintaining peace is also very short, so we have seen that a breakout quickly occurred after the temporary reconciliation,” he said.

Advertisement