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US-China relations
ChinaDiplomacy

Is Beijing planning further diplomatic isolation for Taiwan in wake of William Lai’s win?

  • Nauru’s switch of official recognition after DPP election victory signals mainland China will further squeeze island’s international space
  • As Taipei seeks larger global presence, cross-strait frictions will mount, analysts say

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Taiwanese president-elect William Lai Ching-te (centre) is expected to press for more inclusion in international bodies, but some observers say the island’s bid for UN participation is doomed. Photo: Elson Li
Kawala Xie
Just two days after William Lai Ching-te won the election to become Taiwan’s next president, Nauru, a Pacific island country of fewer than 13,000 people, switched its official recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
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The episode, observers said, would likely happen again with more countries if Lai, the incumbent vice-president who is known for his pro-independence stance, further challenged Beijing, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.

Nauru’s change of heart leaves Taipei with just 12 formal allies, including the Vatican. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Li Fei, a Taiwan studies specialist at Xiamen University, predicted that Beijing would further isolate Taiwan internationally if Lai and his independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) continued to shun the “1992 consensus”.

“The key is the recognition of the 1992 consensus. If [the DPP] recognises it, then there may be some room for negotiation [between Taiwan and mainland China]. If they do not recognise it, then it’s impossible [for Beijing to allow Taiwan to have any presence internationally],” Li said.

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Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Washington-based Stimson Centre, said the timing of Nauru’s announcement was “not a coincidence”.

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