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Brazil
ChinaDiplomacy

What does Brazilian presidential run-off hold for ties with top trading partner China?

  • Incumbent Bolsonaro, known as the ‘Trump of the tropics’, expected to distance himself from Beijing
  • Left-wing challenger Lula could strengthen bilateral ties and partnerships in the BRICS bloc

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A man walks past presidential campaign posters in Brasilia, Brazil, on September 23. Photo: Reuters
Stella Chen

Brazil’s presidential election run-off at the end of this month between left-winger Lui Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro could shake up the country’s relationship with China, its top trading partner.

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Experts said 67-year-old Bolsonaro, known as the “Trump of the tropics”, would distance himself from China, at least rhetorically, while Lula, who was open to dialogue with Beijing when he was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, favoured a closer bilateral relationship.

Lula, who will turn 77 three days before the October 30 run-off election, visited China in 2004 with more than 450 businessmen, laying the foundations for a thriving economic partnership. Bilateral trade hit a record US$135 billion last year, rising for a fourth consecutive year despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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But China’s relationship with Brazil has been frosty under Bolsonaro’s watch since 2019 due to tensions over China’s economic dominance and the origins of Covid-19.

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