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US-China relations
ChinaDiplomacy
Ankit Panda
Ankit Panda

Opinion | US-China relations set for more of the same under Donald Trump’s new security adviser

  • Robert O’Brien is not a well-known name in foreign policy circles and when it comes to Beijing, his role is likely to be marginal, Ankit Panda writes
  • John Bolton may have gone but there are still plenty of China hawks whispering in the president’s ear

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Donald Trump may have appointed a new national security adviser but it is unlikely to have much effect on US-China relations. Photo: AP
Ankit Panda
John Bolton is out as US President Donald Trump’s third national security adviser. The remarkable turnover in that position is unprecedented, with Trump now the first leader ever to see four different people in the role during a first term.
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Bolton came to the Trump administration as an experienced bureaucratic operator with strongly held views. While the latter didn’t particularly distinguish him within the administration, it was the former that made him particularly effective at manoeuvring within an administration comprised of many executive branch novices.

In the lead-up to Bolton’s departure, the signs of a fissure between him and the president had become clear, with the adviser getting ahead of himself on Venezuela, Iran, North Korea and even Afghanistan. Trump had taken note of his hawkish views, joking in July apparently that Bolton’s solution to even non-military problems was to “nuke them all”.
Donald Trump announced John Bolton’s dismissal on Twitter. Photo: AFP
Donald Trump announced John Bolton’s dismissal on Twitter. Photo: AFP

Bolton’s sacking, done over Twitter, followed Trump’s remarkable admission that he was planning to meet Taliban representatives on US soil to finalise a potential agreement. Bolton had criticised the idea, favouring an open-ended US presence in Afghanistan.

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While Bolton’s departure is likely to lead to a noticeable change in the administration’s approach to negotiations with American adversaries – from Iran to North Korea to the Taliban – there is one area where it is unlikely to have any appreciable effect: China policy.

Yes, like on so many things, Bolton was hawkish on China, but here, he found himself closer in policy preference to the president and many of his other top staff than on other issues. Bolton may be gone, but plenty of hawkish advisers remain in place, whispering in Trump’s ear. Trump, too, has hardened in his anti-China views in 2019.

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