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Ankit Panda

India’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led government realised a long-standing aspiration of its followers and ideological fellow travellers on August 5.
By announcing it would abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution, thereby ending special status for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi moved to consolidate its control over this region.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-hand man and home minister, Amit Shah, had cashed in on the massive electoral mandate the party had won in general elections earlier this year.
While the government’s move has won favour among both supporters and some opposition parties in India, it has opened a geopolitical Pandora’s box.




Pakistan, which claims the entirety of India-administered Kashmir as its own territory, has protested and downgraded its diplomatic ties.
Islamabad’s retaliatory actions are expected to continue and may spill into increased clashes along the sensitive Line of Control, which demarcates the Pakistani-administered portion of Kashmir from the Indian section.
But while most international attention remains focused on how Pakistan will play its cards next, China’s role in Kashmir has been relatively neglected.
India, along with Bhutan, is one of just two countries that have yet to settle their land borders with China.
China is always opposed to India’s inclusion of the Chinese territory in the western sector of the China-India boundary into its administrative jurisdiction,’ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
Delhi’s move in Kashmir is likely to complicate future talks on finalising the border between India and China.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after more than half a day of silencer, condemned India’s actions.
“China is always opposed to India’s inclusion of the Chinese territory in the western sector of the China-India boundary into its administrative jurisdiction,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in a statement.
She added that India “continued to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally changing its domestic law,” in an apparent reference to Delhi’s move on Article 370.
India, Pakistan to send envoys to China as hostilities flare over Kashmir
The accusation that a change in Indian law could affect China’s sovereignty was particularly bold – especially given Beijing’s own use of domestic law to strong-arm claimant states in the disputed South China Sea.
In any case, China continues to administer the large Kashmiri region of Aksai Chin, which sits just east of India-administered Ladakh, an area in northwestern India that will come under New Delhi’s direct rule as a result of the changes.




Ladakh used to be part of the erstwhile Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which no longer exists, but will be succeeded by a new so-called union territory with the same name.
India’s consolidation of autonomy over Ladakh – and by extension Aksai Chin – will set up a new challenge as the two countries continue a dialogue on the border dispute. The 22nd round of that process should take place later this year.
India’s move to split Kashmir casts shadow over China ties
For years, even as New Delhi and Beijing had temporary crises along their border, including the 2017 stand-off over an obscure patch of Bhutanese territory known as Doklam, their dialogue has mostly continued.
While no final resolution of the border dispute was imminent, the two sides were heading toward a crystallisation of the old status quo, with India likely making concessions on Aksai Chin, and China on the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

However, with India’s abrogation of Article 370, Beijing may find itself toeing an uncompromising line on the border – taking what is certain to be a less compromising stance than before.
In particular, China’s claim over Tawang, a town in Arunachal Pradesh, is likely to harden as a result of India’s reorganisation of Ladakh.
Over 500 detained as Indian police clamp down in Kashmir
Moreover, Tawang’s prominence in the border dispute may take on special importance should the Dalai Lama die, setting up a succession crisis between a Beijing-anointed successor and a legitimate successor outside Tibet.
In the near term, we may also expect Beijing to push the envelope along the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) – the demarcation separating Indian-administered areas from Chinese-administered ones.

While a redux of the Doklam stand-off of 2017 may be unlikely, Chinese crossings of the LoAC in Ladakh may increase to protest against India’s actions.
With its move on article 370, India will have to concern itself with both of its disgruntled neighbours.
In Kashmir, has Modi’s India won the battle but lost trust?
While the situation with Pakistan will remain more acute in the coming days, India just made the task of finding a lasting solution to the border dispute with China a lot more complicated.
Ankit Panda is a senior editor at The Diplomat


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Supporters of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party celebrate the government’s revocation of Kashmir's special status, in Lucknow. Photo: AP

epa07760781 Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol during curfew in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian Kashmir, 07 August 2019. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah moved a resolution in the parliament that repeals Article 370, and said the state will be split into two Union Territories, Kashmir with an Assembly and Ladakh region without one. EPA-EFE/FAROOQ KHAN

epa07757932 A supporter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shouts slogans and holds Indian national flag infront of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus to celebrate the removal of Article 370, in Mumbai, India, 05 August 2019. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah moved a resolution in the parliament that all clauses of Article 370, which accords special status to Jammu and Kashmir will be removed and said the state will be split into two Union Territories Kashmir with an Assembly and Ladakh region without one. EPA-EFE/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI

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About a dozen activists of a Hindu group burn a Pakistani flag during a protest in Jammu, part of the larger region of Kashmir, on Thursday. Photo: AP

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Indian army soldiers keep guard in Srinagar, Kashmir. Analysts from China and India are optimistic that the latest dispute in the region will not throw bilateral ties off track. Photo: AP

(FILES) This file photo taken on July 10, 2008 shows a Chinese soldier (L) gesturing next to an Indian soldier at the Nathu La border crossing between India and China in India's northeastern Sikkim state. India said August 28, 2017 that troops were disengaging from a months-long stand-off with the Chinese military on a strategically important area of disputed territory in the Himalayas. "Expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is on-going," India's foreign ministry said in a statement. / AFP PHOTO / Diptendu DUTTA

This handout photograph released by India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) on April 28, 2018 shows India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping looking on in a house boat, at East Lake, in Wuhan. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi ended informal meetings in China on April 28 with a promise to reduce border tensions after a high-altitude standoff in the Himalayas last year. / AFP PHOTO / PIB / Handout / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO / PIB" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS -

Over 500 arrested in Kashmir clampdown, as India tells Pakistan revoking autonomy is an ‘internal affair’

Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol during curfew in Srinagar, Kashmir. Photo: EPA-EFE

epaselect epa07760766 A Kashmiri woman walks as Indian paramilitary soldiers stand guard during curfew in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian Kashmir , 07 August 2019. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah moved a resolution in the parliament that repeals Article 370, and said the state will be split into two Union Territories, Kashmir with an Assembly and Ladakh region without one. EPA-EFE/FAROOQ KHAN

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Ankit Panda writes that while New Delhi’s revoking of Kashmir’s special status pleases both supporters and opposition parties, the move has opened ‘a geopolitical Pandora’s box’



Ankit Panda writes that while New Delhi’s revoking of Kashmir’s special status pleases both supporters and opposition parties, the move has opened ‘a geopolitical Pandora’s box’.


India

China-India border dispute

Kashmir

Pakistan

Narendra Modi

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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Opinion | How India’s Kashmir move complicates the border issue with China

Ankit Panda writes that while New Delhi’s revoking of Kashmir’s special status pleases both supporters and opposition parties, the move has opened ‘a geopolitical Pandora’s box’