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Zhenhua Lu

China and the United States have entered a “contest of wills” in the South China Sea, according to analysts.
The assessment follows the latest passage of a US warship through disputed waters near the Scarborough Shoal on Sunday.
It was the second such incident this month and follows a number of missions earlier this year, as the US seeks to challenge China’s activities in the South China Sea.
But analysts predicted that China would step up its countermeasures to show that it would not compromise on sovereignty. However, Beijing and Washington appear to have kept communication channels open to avoid military miscalculations.




Lieutenant Commander Tim Gorman of the US Pacific Fleet defended Sunday’s mission, which saw the USS Preble passing within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal, an area claimed by both China and the Philippines.
Gorman said the mission was designed “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law”.
“All operations are designed in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows,” he continued.
“We conduct routine and regular freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) as we have done in the past and will continue to in the future. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements.”
The US is known to have conducted four freedom of navigation operations this year – one in the Paracel Islands and three in the Spratley chain. It carried out seven last year and six in 2016, according to the Pentagon.
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China’s Southern Theatre Command issued a strong response to the latest incident, saying it endangered the ships and personnel of both sides, undermined China’s sovereignty and security, violated basic norms and undermined regional peace and stability.
Senior Colonel Li Huamin, a spokesman for Southern Theatre Command, said its troops would be kept on high alert and take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty and security.
Washington has also urged its allies to help it to counter China’s activities in the region, where it is accused of building up its military infrastructure, and so far this year the US has conducted join exercises with Britain, the Philippines, Japan and India.
The past 12 months have also seen French and British warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait and Paracel Islands respectively.

Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the US and China were now engaged in a “contest of wills” but “weren’t keen to come to blows considering their mutual interdependence”.
He also said the US military was keen to publicise its operations to “normalise them”, adding: “My sense is that the US side seeks to enhance strategic communication to the wider international community about these operations, and which would also become ‘visible’ to the regional governments as a form of strategic assurance.”
Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military analyst, agreed that “the US has normalised the FONOPs to repeatedly provoke China, which won’t stop”.
He continued: “China should step up its countermeasures to let the US know that Beijing won’t make any concessions on its maritime sovereign claims.”
Song also argued that China also needed to strengthen its coastguard’s capability and the navy and air force’s ability to fight away from China’s coastline.
US naval chief says ‘freedom of navigation’ exercises in South China Sea get more attention than they deserve
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor specialising in US studies, said US President Donald Trump’s administration “has already greatly increased the frequency and intensity of US FONOPs in the past two years”.
Shi added that this situation “had become or was becoming the new normal” and China was “having to restrain itself a little” to prevent the risk of conflict.
However, he said the country’s programme to reclaim land and step up its military capabilities in the waters had given it “real military advantages” that the US “cannot change by an inch”.
But the US and China have continued their mutual dialogue.
Koh noted that both Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe would be attending the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, an event senior Chinese officials have skipped in recent years.
Wei’s US counterpart, Patrick Shanahan, will also be there and “this could mean that both sides wish to maintain channels of communications to manage their rivalry”, Koh said.


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US-China relations

Washington and Beijing in ‘contest of wills’ in South China Sea

The USS Preble. Photo: Handout

This photo taken on May 14, 2019, Philippine coast guard ship BRP Langgam (L) and a US interceptor boat maneouver during a joint search and rescue exercise near Scarborough shoal in the South China Sea, while a chinese coastguard ship (back R) monitor the activity from a distance. Two Philippine coastguard ships, BRP Batangas and Kalanggaman and US coastguard cutter Bertholf participated in the exercise, as two Chinese coastguard ships monitor from a distance. - Two Philippine coastguard ships, BRP Batangas and Kalanggaman and US coastguard cutter Bertholf participated in the exercise, as two Chinese coastguard ships monitor from a distance. (Photo by TED ALJIBE / AFP)

South China Sea: Beijing urges an end to ‘provocative actions’ as US warship sails near disputed waters

The guided-missile destroyer USS Preble continues Washington’s “freedom of navigation” exercises near the Scarborough Shoal area claimed by China in the South China Sea. Photo: US Navy

(170726) -- BEIJING, July 26, 2017 (Xinhua) -- File photo taken in July, 2016 shows Chinese H-6K bomber patrolling islands and reefs including Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. It has been a big year for China's military as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is to celebrate its 90th birthday. As Aug. 1, the birthday of the PLA, approaches, the country's army has shown how much its military capacity has grown and how committed it is to maintaining world peace. The PLA has come a long way since its birth during the armed uprising in the city of Nanchang on August 1, 1927, when it had only 20,000 soldiers. Ninety years later, the country boasts 2 million servicemen, according to a national defense white paper titled "China's Military Strategy," published in 2015. Besides the growth in numbers, the PLA has armed its soldiers with world-class equipment. As of June 2017, the Chinese military had participated in 24 UN peacekeeping missions, sending 31,000 personnel, 13 of whom lost thei

US coastguard to play bigger role in curbing Beijing’s ambitions in the South China Sea

The US Coast Guard vessel Bertholf during a visit to Hong Kong last month. Photo: SCMP

China Coast Guard vessels are pictured at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, April 5, 2017. Picture taken April 5, 2017. REUTERS/Erik De Castro

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Diplomacy

Latest US mission in disputed waters may prompt China to step up its countermeasures


Latest US mission in disputed waters may prompt China to step up its countermeasures.
