Asia-Pacific to see slowing economic growth amid trade tensions, policy uncertainty: Apec

Protectionism ‘harms economic relations’ among 21 member countries, group’s report says, as unease rises over Donald Trump’s agenda

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Peruvian President Dina Boluarte waves at the government palace in Lima on November 12, 2024. Peru is hosting this year’s summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, an intergovernmental group that promotes free trade. Photo: Reuters

Mark Magnierin Lima, PeruandIgor Patrickin Lima, Peru

Published: 4:40am, 13 Nov 2024Updated: 4:47am, 13 Nov 2024

The Asia-Pacific region will see slowing economic growth over the next several years amid rising trade tensions, greater policy uncertainty and an ageing population that reduces its labour force and adds fiscal pressure, according to a report released by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group on Tuesday.

“Protectionism, including increases in tariff lines, threatens trade growth and harms economic relations among Apec members,” said Rhea C. Hernando, co-author of the report. “A renewed commitment to cooperation on trade issues is crucial to maintaining Apec’s positive momentum in the face of evolving global challenges.”

The report forecasts that expansion of the 21 member economies, which accounts for most of the region, will lag the rest of the world with growth rates of 3.5 per cent in 2024, 3.1 per cent next year, 3 per cent in 2026 and 2.7 per cent through the end of the decade.

Regional trade, meanwhile, is slated to grow 3.9 per cent this year, with some of the fastest expansion seen by mainland China, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan.

Next year will see higher growth rates, but with different leaders at the head of the pack. Trade for goods and services in 2025 is projected to rise by 4.4 per cent, with the Philippines, Indonesia and Chile expanding fastest.

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To track rising protectionism, Apec researchers tallied the cumulative number of trade restrictions and countermeasures. Their data showed that the number of barriers rose from 276 at the end of 2019 to 345 last month, up 25 per cent, while trade countermeasures surged 28 per cent.