US-China trade: Donald Trump likelier than Kamala Harris to threaten tariffs, analysts say

Duelling campaign rhetoric belies broad bipartisan consensus, former American trade officials say, with Indo-Pacific ties hanging in balance

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2024 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Uniondale, New York, on Wednesday. The former US leader has long championed trade tariffs against China. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

Published: 2:15am, 20 Sep 2024Updated: 2:50am, 20 Sep 2024

Both major US presidential candidates fundamentally agree on international trade objectives, former American trade officials said on Thursday, but look for more threats, posturing and volatile tariff barriers under a Donald Trump 2.0 administration, particularly against China.

The unconventional race between the former president and Vice-President Kamala Harris kicked off nine weeks ago when President Joe Biden reluctantly opted not to seek a second term after a disastrous debate performance.

Since then, campaigning has cast international trade in decidedly domestic terms, with Trump threatening to impose up to 20 per cent tariffs on all imports and 60 per cent on Chinese goods – presumably on top of the 25 per cent levels already in place.

In heated if detail-free exchanges, Trump has framed tariffs as a source of “billions” of US dollars for child care, a stronger US dollar and an “economic renaissance”.

Meanwhile, Harris, whose tariff arguments are backed by most economists, has tarred them as a US$4,000 annual tax on middle-class Americans.

“Trump’s a tariff man, make no mistake. But he’s also a deal maker,” said Clete Willems, who served at the National Economic Council, National Security Council and US Trade Representative office (USTR) during the Trump administration.