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US-China relations
China

A Chinese military blockade of Taiwan would likely fail and nothing easy about an invasion: Pentagon

  • ‘Huge miscalculation’ if Beijing proceeded with trying to cut off the self-ruled island, senior US defence officials testify at House hearing
  • Invasion ‘would require combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation’ and be ‘incredibly complicated’, panel also told

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The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Milius (DDG 69), deployed to the US 7th Fleet area of operations, conducts a Taiwan Strait transit operation, at an undisclosed location on April 17, 2023. U.S. Photo: Reuters
Amber Wangin Washington
Senior Pentagon officials have testified that China’s military is likely to fail if it sought to blockade Taiwan and that there was nothing easy about invading the self-ruled island.
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Ely Ratner, the US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said during a congressional hearing on Tuesday it would be a “huge miscalculation” for Beijing to try to cut off the island.

“We believe, based on our analysis, that Taiwan would have options on its own and with the international community to ensure the delivery of industrial resources, raw materials, energy and other critical items in the event of a [People’s Liberation Army] blockade, so it is likely to not succeed,” Ratner told the House Armed Services Committee.

“And it would be a huge risk of escalation for the PRC, where it would likely have to consider whether or not it was willing to ultimately start attacking commercial maritime vessels. So, for all that reason, we think this would be … a huge miscalculation,” he said, referring to a blockade scenario.

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The comment represented the Pentagon’s latest public assessment of Beijing’s capabilities in imposing a blockade and of how the international reaction might play out.

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Military observers widely believe that a blockade is an option the PLA has rehearsed over the past year through its large-scale exercises conducted near the island.

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