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Is the worst over? Experts divided on coronavirus peak as new infections slow in Hubei epicentre

  • Hubei health authority says new infection numbers have fallen 57 per cent in six days, but scientists caution that factors such as under-reporting could change this
  • Epidemiologist says if containment has worked it will bring ‘dramatic reduction’ in new cases in mid-to-late February

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Experts are divided on coronavirus peak as new infections slow in Hubei epicentre. Photo: AP

New coronavirus infections in China outside the epicentre of Hubei province have fallen for seven days in a row, according to health authorities in the country, seemingly in line with predictions by some infectious disease specialists that the deadly outbreak may peak this month.

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However, the experts caution that unreported information could upend any outlook for the disease and its behaviour, while others say it is too soon to try to make predictions.
China’s National Health Commission (NHC) reported 381 new infections in mainland China outside Hubei on Monday, compared to 890 on February 3 – a drop of 57 per cent.

In Hubei excluding Wuhan city, where the outbreak began almost two months ago, the daily number of new infections fell for six consecutive days to 545 on Monday from 1,221 on Wednesday, according to provincial health authority figures. That is down 55 per cent.

“The new infection rate in all regions excluding Hubei province declined for seven consecutive days since February 3. Even if you include Hubei province and Wuhan, the national infection rate is declining,” said NHC official He Qinghua at a press conference on Tuesday morning.

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