Vietnam’s communist party meets to elect new leadership, while confronting momentous decisions on economic reform and foreign policy

To change or not to change. That will be the question confronting Vietnam’s Communist Party elites when they congregate next week for a meeting that will shape the country’s future.

At stake is the selection of new leadership, who will determine how to navigate the tricky juncture of whether to further modernise the single-party state, or to dig their heels in and uphold the party’s supremacy.

Past leaders have found themselves stuck between these opposing currents. But expectations are high that Vietnam will be forced to carry out reforms if the party is to survive, while steering the country closer to the West and away from China, once a close ideological ally but now an increasingly assertive neighbour.

Analysts claim these reforms will be difficult – almost impossible – without a strong leader. So when the delegates cast their votes later this month, many will be watching to see whether liberal-leaning Prime Minster Nguyen Tan Dung can win the conservatives’ trust and become the new party chief.

“This is probably the most consequential party congress in two decades,” said David Brown, a retired American diplomat who was posted in Vietnam and lived there for a decade.

At the five-yearly party congress, scheduled to run January 20-28, more than 1,000 delegates from around the nation will meet in the capital city of Hanoi to discuss policies deemed important for the country.

“There will be a lot of reports, which will be listened to and applauded,” Brown said. “It’s very unlikely there will be much that’s not already scripted.”