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Agence France-Presse

Candidates in Japan’s super-tight election made last-ditch appeals to voters on Saturday, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling coalition might fall short of a majority.
Such a bombshell outcome in Sunday’s vote would be the worst result for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2009, and potentially a knockout blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Ishiba – a fan of trains, 1970s pop idols and making model ships and planes – only last month took the helm of the LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all of the past seven decades.
After a tough internal contest, the 67-year-old former defence minister became premier on October 1. Days later, he called the snap parliamentary elections, promising a “new Japan”.
Ishiba pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population through family-friendly policies such as flexible working hours.
But he has since rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames.
He also named only two women ministers in his cabinet.

Rising prices have rankled voters, and also dogging Ishiba is the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink his predecessor, Fumio Kishida.
A poll on Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.
Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective, and missing it would undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.
Local media speculated that Ishiba could potentially even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.
The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days – four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 – just after Japan’s 1945 defeat in World War II.
“The situation is extremely severe,” Ishiba reportedly said on the stump on Friday.
But at a rally on Saturday, he made a fresh promise of renewal to hundreds of supporters.
“We want to start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party, and seek your mandate,” he said.

In many districts, LDP candidates are in neck-and-neck battles with those from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) – the second-biggest in parliament – led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.
“The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” Noda said at a rally on Saturday.
“But those in vulnerable positions, who can’t offer cash, have been ignored,” he added, accusing the LDP-led government of offering insufficient support for survivors of an earthquake in central Japan.
Noda’s stance “is sort of similar to the LDP’s. He is basically a conservative,” said Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University.
“The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so,” Kamikubo said.
Ishiba promised to not actively support LDP politicians caught up in the funding scandal running in the election, although they are still standing.
According to media reports, the party has also provided 20 million yen (US$132,000) each to district offices headed by these figures.

“It is truly frustrating that such reports come out at a time like this,” Ishiba said in a campaign speech on Thursday. “Those candidates will not use the money.”
“We cannot be defeated by those with biased views,” he added.
Hitomi Hisano, an undecided voter from the central Aichi region, said that the LDP’s funding scandal was a big factor for him.
“The LDP has sat in power for too long. I see hubris in there,” the 69-year-old said. “So part of me wants to punish them.”
“But there aren’t other parties that are reliable enough to win my vote.”
Rintaro Nishimura, of the think tank The Asia Group, said that win or lose, Ishiba’s position was tenuous.
“Regardless of what the election results are, Ishiba’s longevity as prime minister is in question.”


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Japan

Japan’s Ishiba seeks fresh mandate as election race tightens

A member of staff hands flyers out with the picture of Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, before his election campaign speech in Tokyo on Saturday. Photo: AFP

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (centre) arrives for an election campaign speech in support of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in Tokyo, on Saturday. Photo: AFP

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), delivering an election campaign speech in front of Shibuya station in Tokyo on Saturday. Noda was prime minister of Japan from 2011 to 2012. Photo: AFP

A member of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan delivers a stump speech as pedestrians walk through Shibuya crossing, during the last election campaign day in Tokyo, on Saturday. Photo: EPA/EFE

Japan PM Ishiba’s defence reforms face election hurdle with LDP expected to lose ground

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, makes a stump speech in Takatsuki, Osaka prefecture, on October 21. Photo: Kyodo

Shigeru Ishiba (left) and Keiichi Ishii, secretary of junior ruling coalition partner Komeito, shake hands at the Komeito party’s convention in Tokyo on September 28. Photo: Kyodo

The Japan Ground Self-Defence Force holds a ceremony marking the launch of a new ground-to-ship missile unit in Uruma, Okinawa prefecture, in March. Photo: Kyodo

Yoshihiko Noda (right), leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, shakes hands with a supporter after his election campaign speech in Kasukabe city of Saitama prefecture on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

A man’s world? Japan makes tepid push on gender gap in politics as election nears

Karen Makishima (left), a Liberal Democratic Party candidate for the coming general election, delivers a speech on top of a campaign vehicle on the first day of her campaign in Odawara. Photo: Reuters

A woman walks past campaign posters for the House of Representatives election in Tokyo. Photo: AFP

Karen Makishima, a Liberal Democratic Party candidate for the coming general election, delivers a speech on top of a campaign vehicle on the first day of her campaign in Odawara. Photo: Reuters

Media representatives stand in front of a poster showing the nine candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election. Japan’s perennial gender gap problem has become a source of international embarrassment. Photo: AFP

A banner for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election on the front of the party’s headquarters in Tokyo. Photo: AFP

Japan’s new cabinet that only had two women, as shared on social media by the Prime Minister’s Office of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Photo: X/kantei

Japan’s new PM calls snap election to ‘create a new Japan’

Shigeru Ishiba wants to shore up his mandate to push through policies that include more spending on defence. Photo: EPA-EFE

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a party leaders’ debate. Photo: Xinhua

Shigeru Ishiba, leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, bows to acknowledge the applause after he was selected as the new prime minister. Photo: AFP

Election clouds loom over Japan’s ruling party as Ishiba’s approval ratings nosedive

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba makes a stump speech on Thursday ahead of the October 27 general election. Photo: Kyodo

Shigeru Ishiba (second from left) campaigns with an LDP candidate during a rally in Fukushima prefecture on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

A woman holds a placard with an image reading “defeat Ishiba” during a rally outside the parliament building in Tokyo on October 1. Photo: AFP

People gather to listen to stump speeches by candidates in Tokyo on Tuesday. Photo: Kyodo

Sanae Takaichi of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Photo: Kyodo

Wary of China, US ranks Japan ‘first’ among Aukus partners: State Department No 2 official

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell (centre) attends a trilateral meeting with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea in Seoul on Wednesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

A screenshot of Kurt Campbell, the US State Department’s No 2 official, speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington on Friday. 

News

Asia

East Asia

Shocking opinion polls suggest the ruling LDP, in power for most of the past seventy years, might fall short of a parliamentary majority


Shocking opinion polls suggest the ruling LDP, in power for most of the past seventy years, might fall short of a parliamentary majority.


Asia elections

Fumio Kishida

Diplomacy