Eyeing ‘if Trump’ scenario, Japan must commit to its own defence
- Experts say Japan could be forced to deal with a militarily emboldened China and North Korea, with reduced US engagement in the region, if Donald Trump returns to the White House
- Japan may not be able to rely on the US when designing its Indo-Pacific security policy unless Washington shows clear commitment to the defence of Taiwan, experts add
The year 2024 will see key elections in a number of large and geopolitically significant polities such as Russia, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, but the US presidential race will have by far the biggest impact on Japanese policymakers.
If Donald Trump, the outspoken former US president who had little interest in prioritising security alliances during his tenure, returns to the White House, Japan could be forced to deal with a militarily emboldened China and North Korea, with reduced US engagement in the region, experts in diplomacy and security believe.
Against the backdrop of a potential weakening of the US role in containing China’s military rise and a buoyed North Korea operating with fewer inhibitions in a multipolar world order, Tokyo will face greater pressure to demonstrate the benefits of Japan-US security ties, while understanding it is more important than ever to bolster its defence capabilities, the experts added.
Prospects are growing that incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden and Trump will face off at the November 5 election in a rematch of the 2020 race, with the latter maintaining a comfortable lead in media polls for the Republican primary vote.
“If Trump becomes the president, he would return to his ‘America first’ policies and pursue them more vigorously by forming his administration only with his supporters,” said Tetsuo Kotani, an international security expert at Meikai University.
In a departure from Trump’s first administration which ran from 2017 to 2021 and had “decent” people who saw a need to strengthen the Japan-US alliance and US defence posture in the Indo-Pacific region, Kotani believes “we would see weakening US commitment to defending” Japan in a second term.
During the four-year term, Trump stuck to his criticism of the alliance with Tokyo as unfair and one-sided, since their bilateral security treaty promises US support if Japan is attacked but does not oblige Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to reciprocate.
