World not running out of oil just yet, BP claims
Chief executive blasts peak oil theories as ‘groundless’, confident that countries will rush to tap carbon-emitting unconventional fuel
Warnings that the world is headed for "peak oil"- when oil supplies decline after reaching the highest rates of extraction - appear "increasingly groundless", BP's chief executive said last week.
Bob Dudley's remarks came as the company published a study predicting that oil production would increase substantially, and that unconventional and high-carbon oil would make up all of the increase in global oil supply to the end of this decade, with the explosive growth of shale oil in the United States behind much of the growth.
As a result, the oil and gas company forecasts that carbon dioxide emissions will rise by more than one-quarter by 2030 - a disaster, according to scientists, because if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, then studies suggest emissions must peak in the next three years or so.
So-called unconventional oil - shale oil, tar sands and biofuels - are the most controversial forms of the fuel because they are much more carbon-intensive than oilfields. They require large amounts of energy and water, and have been linked to serious environmental damage.
While some new conventional oilfields are likely to come on stream before 2020, they will be balanced out by those being depleted.
British Petroleum predicts that by 2030, the United States will be self-sufficient in energy, with only 1 per cent coming from imports, the company's analysts predict. That would be a remarkable turnaround for a country that as recently as 2005, before the shale gas boom, was one of the biggest global oil importers.
