China’s Politburo pledges ‘escalated’ fiscal spending and support: analysts

After Monday’s Politburo meeting, analysts predicted China will raise fiscal spending and cut rates to keep up activity through next year

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China’s Politburo has indicated more fiscal spending and rate cuts are in the immediate future, analysts said. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00pm, 10 Dec 2024

With the end of the year fast approaching – and the window for China to meet its annual economic targets narrowing by the day – high-level policymakers have issued a call for swift action to shore up growth and build a foundation for sustained performance through 2025, analysts said.

Observers noted a forceful rhetorical departure from previous notices in the summary statement issued after a Monday meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo – a major decision-making body.

“The meeting conveyed an unusual message of committed and escalated policy support,” said HSBC analysts Liu Jing and Erin Xin in a note on Monday.

They called it “a timely pledge”, as Donald Trump’s second term as US president brings greater uncertainties and deflationary pressures suggest domestic demand remains soft.

HSBC said fiscal policy should lead the way, with analysts expecting a “larger official fiscal deficit and ongoing issuance of special central government bonds,” complemented by “additional monetary easing”.

That easing would include a cut of 0.5 percentage points to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 0.1 percentage point cut to the interest rate by year’s end, they said, adding the central bank’s recent treasury bond purchases – its first in two decades – might become the norm next year.