‘We’ll be surprised’ by US-China improvements, Harvard scholar argues in Davos

Graham Allison bucks a trend among analysts warning of worsening ties between the world’s biggest economies, and he does not see Donald Trump as a China hawk

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Graham Allison (centre), a professor with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, expects ties between the US and China to improve this year. Photo: World Economic Forum

Published: 8:30pm, 21 Jan 2025Updated: 11:04pm, 21 Jan 2025

Donald Trump’s return to the White House could bring about a surprising improvement in US-China ties, including in trade, a prominent American scholar contended in Davos, adding that Trump may not even be categorised as a “China hawk”.

Instead of the widely discussed “trade war 2.0”, Graham Allison, a professor with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that ties between the two superpowers could tick up.

“I’m betting this time next year … we’ll be surprised on the upside in the relationship,” said Allison, best known for his 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

“I have a piece, it’ll be published next week, that asks: ‘Is Trump a China hawk?’ I think, if you look at what he said and did, you’ll find it difficult to classify him in those terms.”

Xi and Trump get on very well … They both think of themselves as great men

Graham Allison, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

Regarding Trump’s concerns about deficits with China, the Harvard scholar said the “very tight” relationship between Trump and President Xi Jinping could help solve the issue.

“I think Xi and Trump get on very well and understand each other,” Allison said. “They both think of themselves as great men. They like each other in that respect. So, that’s one place to start [for better ties].