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Josephine Ma

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now!
While Donald Trump’s US election win was not totally unexpected, it does not mean that much of the world was not shocked by the outcome.
The world, though, now must accept that there are likely more shocks in store due to the unpredictability of Trump’s words and policies, particularly as upending the norm is part of his modus operandi.
In the second week after his landslide victory, policymakers, analysts and businessmen have been scrutinising how Trump 2.0 will differ from his first term.
His style is no longer an enigma, but Trump should now be more seasoned, and more prepared in forming his team.
How Trump picks his candidates for key posts, and what kind of advisers he surrounds himself with, will provide important clues about what his second term might be like.
There had been hope that Beijing might benefit from Trump’s transactional approach to international relations.


However, in the last couple of days, that optimism has faded as Trump has put well-known hawks in key positions, and many analysts now fear that Trump 2.0 may be even more assertive towards Beijing than his first term was.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for national security adviser, called Beijing an “existential threat” to US interests and lobbied for a boycott of the Winter Olympics hosted in China’s capital in 2021.
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, Trump’s choice for secretary of state, has publicly condemned Beijing over its policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and has sponsored legislation sanctioning officials in both regions – and been sanctioned by China in return.
The naming of Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defence secretary was a surprise to many, but just like the nominations of Waltz and Rubio, Chinese analysts are worried his combative stance will only escalate bilateral tensions.
Policymakers, analysts and businessmen from around the world have many questions about the consequences of Trump’s policy proposals.
For example, the president-elect has threatened to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, and while that may be an empty threat intended to give room for bargaining, it is almost certain China will face higher and more expansive tariffs.
What will be the implications for China and other countries, and how should businesses prepare?




How Trump will deal with Taiwan, another sticking point in China-US relations, is also a big question mark.
Trump said he would demand that Taiwan increase defence spending to 10 per cent of its gross domestic product, as “protection fees”, but that would create a budgetary nightmare for Taiwan.
His claim that Taiwan’s chip industry is “taking out” US business also means authorities on the island will have a lot of bargaining to do.
How would Trump deal with Asia-Pacific countries as he tries to contain China?
Douglas Paal, former US unofficial representative to Taiwan, advised leaders in a SCMP column that they should start to prepare how to negotiate with the Trump administration as they might no longer be able to cosy up to Beijing for economic benefits while relying on the US to provide security.
Europe is also bracing for a different chess game under Trump 2.0, and that may benefit Beijing.


The EU’s China envoy, Jorge Toledo, said Trump’s return to the White House may represent a chance for the EU and China to mend ties.
Former World Trade Organization head Pascal Lamy also urged China and the EU to set aside differences and form a united front against “Trump’s protectionism”.
In the past few months, Beijing has been trying to find contact points for backchannel communications in the event of an emergency or crisis.
During Trump’s first term, China’s then-ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, was known to have good relations with Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner.
Analysts have said that, during his second administration, Trump may well tap billionaires such as Elon Musk, Stephen Schwarzman, Steve Wynn and Linda McMahon for informal diplomacy with Beijing.
While some analysts expect that Musk’s business presence in China may make him a good bridge for communications, there is also a caveat.
China analysts have warned that Musk’s prominent position in the Trump administration would mean an acceleration of the US space programme, which may prove a “huge test” to China’s ambitions, though they have also warned that a space race should be avoided.
60-Second Catch-up
Trump’s back, but China must not go back to tit-for-tat tariffs, noted observer warns.
Video: What’s next for China, Asia and the world?.
Trump’s China dealings will lean on billionaires like Elon Musk for backchannels: analysts.
Opinion: Is there method in the madness of Donald Trump’s ‘gunpowder’ gambit?.
China’s forex reserves should move away from US dollar to curb risks: economist Zhang Ming.
Donald Trump’s China policy could pit deal makers against ideologues: analysts.
Opinion: How Asia can strengthen its trade, manufacturing as Trump returns.
Exclusive: Ex-WTO head says China-EU ‘united front’ can counter Trump trade curbs.
Europe seeks ‘normal, fair’ China trade ties in wake of Trump win: EU envoy Jorge Toledo.
Opinion: Faced with Trump 2.0, Asia-Pacific leaders must figure out what they truly want.
Deep Dives

Is Taiwan ‘not doing enough’? Why Donald Trump’s demands may prove impossible

Taiwan might face impossible expectations from US president-elect who has called for island to drastically increase military spending

US president-elect Donald Trump made Taiwan a focal point of his 2024 campaign, advocating increased defence spending by the island and casting a critical eye on its semiconductor dominance.
While some Taiwanese officials have dismissed these statements as campaign rhetoric, Trump’s repeated calls for Taiwan to pay “protection fees” and increase its defence spending to 10 per cent of GDP now signal real pressure.
Read more.

China-Russia trade to hit new highs, but Trump factor, payments cloud outlook

US president-elect Donald Trump’s return and prolonged financial sanctions could complicate trade between Russia and China

China’s trade with Russia is set to hit new highs this year as payment barriers have been partly addressed in recent months, but analysts warned that US president-elect Donald Trump’s return could be accompanied with more hits to bilateral trade.
And prolonged financial sanctions are also complicating Russia’s efforts to sell products to China due to delayed payments, they warned.
Read more.

What does Trump’s pick for Pentagon chief mean for US-China military ties?

Analysts warn Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Pete Hegseth for defence secretary could inject unpredictability into fragile relations

US president-elect Donald Trump’s surprise pick of Pete Hegseth, a television host and army veteran, to be his Pentagon chief is expected to inject more unpredictability into the already fragile US-China military relationship, according to analysts.
Hegseth, 44, is a Fox News political commentator and a military veteran who served tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is known as a frequent critic of the media and the Democratic Party, with a hawkish stance towards China.
Read more.

Could ‘Peace Beans’ trade enrich US, China agricultural supply-chain diplomacy?

With a focus on American soybeans and Chinese coffee beans, project by US think tank and Chinese university focuses on enhancing agricultural trade

At a time when US president-elect Donald Trump is reported to have once again tapped tariff hawk Robert Lighthizer for the US trade representative role, analysts are underscoring the need for “supply chain diplomacy” to achieve balanced solutions in trade between China and the United States.
A working group, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, an American think tank, intended to send letters to Trump and President Xi Jinping this week to explain the logic behind the benefits of “bidirectional trade”, with a goal of cultivating lasting cooperation.
Read more.

‘Winning’ China competition vital to latest reported Trump cabinet pick: expert

Hardline congressman Mike Waltz has called China an ‘existential threat’ to US interests and called for a boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics

US president-elect Donald Trump’s reported choice of a China hawk as his new national security adviser hints at a tougher China policy in the Republican’s new administration, observers say.
According to multiple reports on Tuesday, Trump has asked Mike Waltz, a Florida congressman and retired Army Special Forces officer, to fill the key position as he considers who to put on his team for his second presidency.
Read more.

Trump eyes Rubio for top diplomat. Will China sanctions create chaos for ties?

Analysts say if Donald Trump picks Marco Rubio for US secretary of state, it could signal more ‘confrontational’ approach to diplomacy

US president-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated pick of Marco Rubio as his top diplomat would set a precedent by putting a China-sanctioned official in charge of handling relations with the world’s second-biggest power.
Trump is eyeing the Florida senator to serve as secretary of state when he returns to the White House, according to major US media outlets, potentially creating fresh turbulence in the already troubled waters of China-US ties.
Read more.
Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.
Sign up now!


Putin says he doesn’t believe Trump is safe after assassination attempts

Cheaper Canadian, Mexican oil to flow into Asia if Trump slaps tariffs

Kamala Harris thanks supporters, Republicans mock her video

Trump says Mexico’s president agreed to ‘stop’ US-bound migration after his tariff threat

US presidential election 2024

Donald Trump’s US election win creates uncertainty for China and the world

Hundreds of decorated cars and trucks with supporters of US president-elect Donald Trump participate in a victory parade in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: AFP

US President Joe Biden with president-elect Donald Trump during a transition meeting at the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Photo: dpa

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Photo: AFP

Photo: Reuters

As the dust settles on Trump’s win, what’s in store for US-China relations?

A supporter of the Republican Party attends an election watch party in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Photo: Xinhua

US Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks during his election night party flanked by family and friends at the Palm Beach County Convention Centre in West Palm Beach. Photo: dpa

Photo: AP

Photo: Dickson Lee

Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

US presidential elections looms, with impact to be felt across Asia

US Vice-President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are seen on a screen as they participate in a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Photo: TNS

Early voters fill out their ballots at the Susan B. Anthony Museum & House in Rochester. Photo: AP

Illustration: Henry Wong

US-China tech takes a turn as TSMC chips found in Huawei’s AI processors

An employee produces semiconductor chips at a microelectronics enterprise in Hai’an, Jiangsu province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images

A worker producing semiconductor chips at a workshop in Suqian, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. Photo: AFP

Photo: Shutterstock Images

China’s economy saw its slowest growth in more than a year. Can it still hit its target?

China Railway workers assemble a pipe jacking machine at the construction site of an underground railway station, in Huzhou, Zhejiang province. Photo: Reuters

A woman wearing a face mask shops in a clothing store in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE

Illustration: Brian Wang

Photo: Xinhua

Photo: Weibo

Photo: China News Service via Getty Images

From milk tea to noodles, the history and influence of Chinese food culture

A girl poses with Milk Tea Flavours installation at HKIA Arts & Culture Festival in Hong Kong Airport. Photo: Edmond So

Hong Kong-style milk tea is served with popular Hong Kong fare at the HOKO Cafe, a pop-up cafe in the trendy London neighborhood of Shoreditch. Photo: AP

Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Photo: Hector Amezcua

Photo: Bloomsbury Publishing

Photo: Jennifer Wong

Photo: Kong Tea

Photo: Jonathan Wong

Photo: Alexander Brunacci

Photo: Rice Service

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Global Economy

News

World

US Elections

United States & Canada

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at what the world – particularly China – can expect under a second Trump administration


In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at what the world – particularly China – can expect under a second Trump administration.


US-China relations

Global Impact

Donald Trump’s China policy

Global Impact | Donald Trump’s US election win creates uncertainty for China and the world

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at what the world – particularly China – can expect under a second Trump administration