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Ralph Jennings

International flights to and from China are expected to grow by nearly 31 per cent year on year between late October and March, with Asian destinations and Chinese carriers leading the way, industry data shows.
One Canadian airline also expanded so abruptly that it caught the attention of the foreign ministry in Beijing.
One-way flights to and from China are anticipated to soar by nearly 40,000 to 168,871 from late October to March compared to a year earlier, according to data compiled by British aviation analytics firm OAG.
The number of seats offered could also rise by 29 per cent to 35.2 million, the OAG data shows.
“Generally tourism is the most important factor,” said Li Hanming, the founder of a US-based aviation consultancy.
“It is winter now, so people living in northern China are flying south.”
Air Canada plans to increase round-trip flights between Shanghai and Vancouver from four to seven in December, before resuming the service connecting Beijing and Vancouver the following month, according to CAAC News, a media platform affiliated with the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Air Canada did not respond to a request for comment.
We pay a high level of attention to these steps in China-Canadian relations
Lin Jian, foreign ministry spokesman
The plans followed the lifting of restrictions by Ottawa earlier this month on the number of flights permitted to operate on China routes.
Canada announced at the outset of the Ukraine war in 2022 that Chinese airlines could make just six round trips a week to Canada, with no direct flights to Beijing.
Chinese carriers have an advantage because they can fly over Russia, while their Canadian peers are banned.
“We pay a high level of attention to these steps in China-Canadian relations, and hope that the Canadian side continues to create positive conditions for normal people’s exchanges between the two countries,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Wednesday.
Major Chinese carriers – with Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines the biggest – are expected to increase seating by 24 per cent to as high as 76 per cent year on year per airline over the coming five months, OAG said.
Chinese carriers would hold about two-thirds of the seats offered over the next five months, according to OAG, up from 47 per cent last year.
Airlines in China were already adding flights to continue a rebound that began after the coronavirus pandemic, while also taking advantage of a slump in business among European airlines, who are not allowed to fly over Russia because of the war in Ukraine, analysts said.


China was the “last to reopen” its borders in the post-pandemic era, but has moved forward despite geopolitical challenges with the United States, said OAG Asia’s head Mayur Patel.
Analysts have said that dimming enthusiasm among businesses in the US and China had kept flight numbers in check.
Some 60 per cent of the anticipated increase in new approvals for international airlines in China over the coming months will serve East and Southeast Asia, Li said.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China had approved 178 applications from airlines to reach 79 countries from November until March.
Chinese holidaymakers often prefer places from Japan to Singapore due to the relatively low travel costs.
Eight of Chinese travellers’ 10 top destinations over the next four months are in East Asia, said Ye Bijun, director of international air tickets at Chinese travel platform Fliggy.
European airlines are expected to hold their flight frequency or cut it, OAG data showed, with Scandinavian Airlines set for an especially large drop of 91 per cent.
China-based airlines have surpassed their counterparts in recovering flights to and from China
Olivier Ponti, ForwardKeys
Many have stopped flying over Russia, adding costly extra hours per flight and giving an advantage to Chinese carriers that still fly over Russia en route to Europe.
Chinese airlines have made a beeline for Europe to use the advantage and avert US restrictions on the frequencies of new Chinese flights that still pass over Russia, said Olivier Ponti, director of intelligence and marketing with the travel analytics firm ForwardKeys.
“China-based airlines have surpassed their counterparts in recovering flights to and from China,” Ponti said.
Two US-based carriers, though, are expected to add more seats and frequency on China routes from October until March, the OAG data indicated.
It said Delta Air Lines would add 40 per cent to its flight frequency and United Airlines 6 per cent.
But flights between China and the West overall “will likely fall” in the next few months, said Shukor Yusof, founder of Singapore-based aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.
The Russian airspace impediment, waning interest among Europeans in China leisure travel and possible “further deterioration” in China’s ties with the West would bring numbers down, he added.


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One-way flights to and from China set to increase by nearly 31 per cent year on year between late October and March, according to industry data


One-way flights to and from China set to increase by nearly 31 per cent year on year between late October and March, according to industry data.
