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Ralph Jennings

New Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will probably move ahead – albeit carefully – in allowing Chinese investment for a land bridge that would offer a Panama Canal-like short cut for Asian marine shipping, analysts said.
The speculation came as the country’s youngest prime minister – who turned 38 on Wednesday – mentioned the “deep and friendly relationship” between the two countries at her first press conference on August 18, a gesture seen as presaging more cooperation.
Paetongtarn will probably follow her predecessors in strengthening economic ties with Beijing, said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a PhD student in political science at the University of Michigan, earlier this month.
The land bridge project, a potential replacement to the shelved Kra canal linking the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand, got a new drumroll of enthusiasm as it is expected to bolster the southern Thai economy.
When asking for Beijing’s support, Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, literally sketched it out during an October forum in Beijing and posted it on X, formerly Twitter.
A shipping bypass would appeal to China, which now sends vessels through the far-flung, strategically important Malacca Strait. The strait is also the main transport artery for a large share of China’s imports of crude oil from the Middle East and raw materials from Africa. Currently, some 94,000 ships pass through the strait every year or use its 40-plus ports.

ผมลองวาดเส้นทางของ Landbridge ให้กับทางผู้ประกอบการรถไฟในประเทศจีนให้เข้าใจง่ายขึ้น ทำให้เห็นภาพของโครงการสองท่าเรือแต่นับรวมเป็นหนึ่ง โครงการจะลดปัญหาการจัดการซ้ำซ้อน (Double Handling) ได้ครับ
รีบวาดรีบคุยให้เข้าใจ แม้ภาพออกมาไม่ค่อยสวยเท่าไรแต่สื่อสารได้ผลดีเลยครับ 🙂 pic.twitter.com/1Dozo765Sw
— Srettha Thavisin (@Thavisin) October 17, 2023

China would have the engineering capability and funds to aid in the bridge’s construction – and carries an interest in greater regional connectivity through its Belt and Road Initative.
The Thai government has sought financing for the 90km (56-mile) bridge, which has been estimated to cost at least US$28.6 billion.
Beijing has not yet expressed an official stance.
However, the Bangkok Post reported last October that state-owned contractor China Harbour Engineering Co was considering a contribution, citing the Thai government. Hong Kong property developer New World Development has also shown interest, it added.
Analysts said Thai officials should brace for negotiations with potential Chinese funders.
“Both sides would get advantages from this investment, but the project is big and requires time,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform.
“The pros and cons are so numerous that it is hard to decide what to do all at once.”


The 11-year-old Belt and Road Initiative has bankrolled overseas infrastructure – from a Pakistani port to a newly announced Cambodian canal – as a way of smoothing Chinese trade routes, but Beijing announced its intentions late last year to pivot towards projects it deemed “small yet beautiful”.
Chinese officials have already begun looking for other Malacca Strait alternatives, such as gas pipelines from Central Asia, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and a pipeline linking Myanmar’s ports in the Andaman Sea with Southwest China’s Yunnan province.
China would want a smart deal, overseas experts believe, while stakeholders from Bangkok to Washington may question it.
“The new prime minister will need to be careful with the decision to go ahead on such a project,” said Ruth Banomyong, a professor at the business school of Bangkok-based Thammasat University. He cited growing concerns over Chinese influence among Thai citizens.
Thai media have reported officials from the Southeast Asian country found China’s price too high for the in-progress China-Thailand railway, which will extend 873km from Bangkok to the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming.
Thailand decided against Chinese financing in 2016, electing to pay for its side of the construction, estimated at US$5.3 billion. The railway is due to start operations in 2028.




“If Thailand wants to retain its autonomy in controlling the canal [or land bridge] it will not allow a single foreign country to finance more than 50 per cent of the project,” said Alexander Vuving, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies in Hawaii.
“This is tough, and requires a large dose of political will on the part of the new government.”
In weighing China’s role in the project, Paetongtarn would need to mind the interests of Southeast Asian countries along the Malacca Strait, a potentially excited Thai business community and voices in the West that frown on Chinese investment, Vuving warned.


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With a new Thai leader in place, speculation is rife over whether she will ask for China’s aid in massive land bridge project


With a new Thai leader in place, analysts speculate over whether she will ask for China’s aid in a massive land bridge project that would serve both countries’ interests.
