China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: as GDP gap with US widens, will the ‘East wind’ prevail?
- A few years ago, many confidently predicted China would overtake the US in GDP terms – but a recent downturn suggests these prophecies were premature
- Pressure mounting to keep pace, even as gap widens in nominal and US dollar terms, and analysts warn a dethroning may move out of reach
When Chinese leaders bring up the drive for “national rejuvenation” or, more recently, the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” in speeches and official documents, it carries several implications worthy of a closer look.
Most obviously, it articulates a need for China to be restored to its perceived historic state of prominence, but also alludes to room for improvement despite the country’s 2010 ascent to its present status as the world’s second-largest economy. That leaves only one obstacle to be surmounted – the United States, for decades the world’s top dog in terms of gross domestic product (GDP).
Modern China under the Communist Party has long held that such an upheaval was inescapable, though leaders at that time spoke about the capitalist world at large. In 1957, Mao Zedong asserted – echoing a passage from Dream of the Red Chamber – that the “East wind” had already prevailed over the “West wind”. But in terms of economic size, that ambition would only come within reach more than a half-century later.
Such a tilt in world power would indicate major historical changes in China’s and the party’s favour, but it is far from a settled matter.
