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Orange Wang

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This live blog has been made freely available as a public service to our readers. Please consider supporting SCMP’s journalism by subscribing. Get faster notifications on the latest updates by downloading our app.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s chief governmental data compiler, held a press conference on Friday morning.
At the conference, NBS Commissioner Kang Yi and other officials revealed the yearly figures for gross domestic product, population, unemployment and other metrics that will inform policy decisions in 2025.
While meeting the annual GDP target – set at “about 5 per cent” at the opening session of the national legislature in March – has been a priority for decades, the year’s register of births and deaths has taken on greater importance as the country’s population has been in a state of steady decline.
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China logs 5% GDP growth in 2024 as exports, stimulus provide year-end boost

China GDP

China meets annual GDP target with 5% growth in 2024 – as it happened

People hang out at The Bund as the financial district of Pudong is seen in the background in Shanghai. Photo: Reuters

Major statistics for China in 2024, including annual GDP and population figures, were unveiled by the National Bureau of Statistics. Photo: Xinhua

Economy

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China Macro Economy

The National Bureau of Statistics published GDP and population numbers for 2024, data that will inform policy decisions for the year ahead


The National Bureau of Statistics published GDP and population numbers for 2024, data that will inform policy decisions for the year ahead.


China society

China's population

China's economic recovery

China economy

China's ageing population

China jobs

Two Sessions 2025 (Lianghui)

Live

Thanks for joining. The National Bureau of Statistics press conference is scheduled to begin at 10 am in Beijing.


Welcome

Reporters have lined up in the Telegraph Building to get hard copies of the data release well before the conference is scheduled to begin.
The bureau has press conferences every month to release data, but the January event for the annual GDP numbers attract the most attention.



Media camps out early

National Bureau of Statistics head Kang Yi and NBS spokesman Fu Linghui will address the press today.



Who will attend?

Many of China’s localities - including the most economically vital regions of the country - have already announced their gross domestic product targets for the year at sessions of their legislatures.
Fujian province, a major economic centre of the southeast, has projected growth to land anywhere in the range of 5-5.5 per cent, a more definitive goal than last year’s “higher than 5 per cent”.
Other regions - particularly those reliant on exports - have been more cautious. Both Shanghai and Guangdong have held steady in their estimates for 2025, aiming for “around 5 per cent”.



Local governments roll out GDP plans

China saw a year-on-year increase of 5 per cent in its gross domestic product for 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics has announced.
Year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter was 5.4 per cent, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 per cent.


2024 GDP revealed

On Friday morning, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3,226.76, down from the previous day’s close of 3,236.03.
Similarly, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index started at 19,499.10, slipping from 19,522.89 at close of business on Thursday.


Markets dip on Friday morning

China’s long-beleaguered property market is showing signs of stabilisation, as 23 of the 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics reported month-on-month increases for new home prices in December, compared to 17 cities a month earlier.



Home prices on the rise

Representatives from the National Bureau of Statistics have arrived.



Officials make their entrance

On Friday morning, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate – also known as the fixing rate – at 7.1889 per US dollar, weaker than Thursday’s 7.1881, while the offshore yuan was trading at around 7.345 to the US dollar.



Yuan weakens before data dump

China’s population dropped by 1.39 million to 1.4083 billion in 2024, but the number of births rose to 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million newborns in 2023.


China’s population drops again, births show modest rise

As births fail to outpace deaths, China’s population has been on the decline - with today’s numbers indicating a third consecutive year of absolute loss.
The country’s birth rate – the number of births per 1,000 people – has fallen yearly since 2016. In 2023, it reached an all-time low of 6.39, equating to 9.02 million births – the lowest annual figure since records began in 1949.



A shifting population pyramid

In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5 per cent year-on-year to 48.79 trillion yuan (US$6.65 trillion).
Total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 3.7 per cent year on year in December, an increase of 0.12 per cent month on month.


Retail sales on the rise

Overall fixed-asset investment, covering major projects like infrastructure, manufacturing and large-scale construction, saw a 3.2 per cent year-on-year increase last year.
Property investment – where long-term decline has weighed down broader growth – shrank by 10.6 per cent year on year in 2024.



Large-scale investment data mixed

Economists said the mixed messages from today’s macroeconomic data release indicate a need for more policy support.
“The shift of policy stance in September last year helped the economy to stabilise in Q4,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management. “But large and persistent policy stimulus is required to boost economic momentum and sustain the recovery.”


Analysts weigh in

China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, 0.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier.
The widely watched youth unemployment rate has not yet been released.



Unemployment sees small dip in 2024

Following the data release, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up by 0.13 per cent to 3,240.15, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.14 per cent to 19,549.93.



Markets react

China’s private investment, often used to gauge the confidence and sentiment of entrepreneurs, had improved to a degree in December.
While the full year’s figure still represented a decline - down 0.1 per cent - the drop had been 0.4 per cent for the period from January to November.


Slight uptick for private investment

China saw another good harvest amid a national push for food security, with annual grain production up 1.6 per cent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said.



China gains in grains for 2024

In response to a question about the external environment and protectionism, bureau commissioner Kang Yi stayed upbeat while acknowledging the difficulties that lie ahead.
“Generally speaking, the national economy was generally stable with steady progress in 2024,” he said. “However, we must be aware that the adverse effects brought by the external environment are increasing.
“Domestic demand is insufficient, some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy is still facing challenges. We must implement more proactive and effective macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote integrated advancements in technological and industrial innovation, stabilise market expectation and boost internal vitality to ensure continued economic recovery and development.”



NBS head shares economic outlook

National Bureau of Statistics head Kang Yi acknowledged the importance of the “timely introduction of the supportive policy package” in late September, which he said has effectively boosted social confidence, stimulated vitality and aided economic recovery.


Statistics bureau praises stimulus

More than two thirds of China’s population now lives in cities, as the country’s urbanisation rate rose by 0.84 percentage points to 67 per cent last year.



China’s urbanisation campaign continues

Industrial output grew by 6.2 per cent year on year in December, contributing to an overall 5.8 per cent expansion for 2024.
The production of new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and industrial robots - all closely watched barometers for technological development - grew by 38.7 per cent, 22.2 per cent, and 14.2 per cent, respectively.



Industrial output, tech manufacturing up

China’s reported 5 per cent in annual economic growth was higher than the World Bank’s forecast of 4.5 per cent, itself an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the annual rate the bank predicted in June.
This was primarily attributed to the boost provided by recent policy measures, and a strong export momentum expected to continue through the end of 2024. However, the global financial institution cited factors like weak consumer confidence, a sluggish labor market and the adverse effects of declining real estate prices on wealth as likely to hinder consumption growth.
By 2026, the bank said, the economy is expected to see a further decline in growth to 4 per cent, in line with a potential slowdown. “With a declining population, further accumulation of public and corporate debt and slower productivity growth, both consumption and investment are expected to remain weak.”



World Bank warns of long-term slowdown

China’s industrial capacity utilisation ratio rose to a three-year high of 76.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics said, as a series of stimulus measures helped to lift economic momentum.


Industrial capacity ratio hits three-year high

The economic recovery of the last quarter - largely driven by increased fiscal spending - should continue to provide near-term support to activity, said Zichun Huang, China economist with Capital Economics, but that boost will be short-lived.
“We still expect growth to slow for 2025 as a whole,” Huang said, “with Trump likely to follow through on his tariff threats soon and persistent structural imbalances still weighing on the economy.”



Q4 recovery will be ‘short-lived’: economist

In December, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, new home prices rose month-on-month in 23 cities, while second-hand residential prices increased in nine cities. Notably, new home prices in first-tier cities edged up by 0.2 per cent, their first increase since June 2023.
Conditions are expected to improve further in the future, said National Bureau of Statistics Commissioner Kang Yi. China’s urbanisation remains “incomplete”, he added, meaning more potential demand for higher-quality homes.



Real estate prices edge up after months of decline

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) partly attributed last year’s low inflation to extreme weather and international energy prices.
The NBS reported 0.2 per cent full-year growth for the consumer price index (CPI) and persistent contraction of producer prices, raising worries over deflationary pressures and weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
“Positive factors leading to price recovery are increasing,” said NBS official Fu Linghui, citing the results of stimulus policies and consumption figures in advance of the Lunar New Year holiday.
January CPI growth is expected to improve, Fu said, adding a mild recovery is expected for 2025.



Price contractions raise deflation worries

The upward shift in fourth-quarter economic data was a result of early shipments from US importers to avoid tariffs, a surge in auto and home appliances sales thanks to trade-in schemes, upticks in infrastructure spending and stimulus-driven recoveries in housing and stock market transaction volumes, said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist with Coface.
But a more sustained demand-side recovery still depends on the improvement of labor market conditions and corporate expansion, he said, adding policy support is currently lagging.
“We expect Chinese economic growth to slow to 4.3 per cent in 2025 as uncertainty remains on the scale and effectiveness of stimulus measures to stabilise housing and consumption,” Tan said, “while export growth is set to decelerate due to the threat of additional tariffs.”



Stimulus, pre-tariff exports helped GDP: analyst

Goldman Sachs economists said they continue to expect real GDP growth to slow to 4.5 per cent year-on-year in 2025, as the recent policy easing to mitigate the property downturn and aid consumer sentiment will be offset by the higher US tariffs likely to be imposed under US president-elect Donald Trump.


Goldman Sachs predicts 4.5% growth in 2025

China has become less dependent on its property sector and seen higher contributions from its digital economy to growth, National Bureau of Statistics head Kang Yi said, calling it a sign the country is optimising its economic structure.
The added value of China’s property sector dropped to 6.3 per cent of the national total in 2024, down 0.5 percentage points from the year before.



China turns to digital economy as property dependence fades

“We’re fully confident in China’s economic development in 2025,” said National Bureau of Statistics head Kang Yi, noting that the country’s growth potential remains at a mid-to-high level.
The digital economy contributed 42.8 per cent of GDP in 2023, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. Although data for 2024 has not been released, Kang expressed optimism about the sector’s continued growth.
“2025 marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan,” Kang said. “Clear targets, strong policy implementation and the launch of key strategic initiatives will bring greater vitality to economic growth.”


NBS head expresses confidence for 2025

The closely watched youth unemployment figure maintained its downward trajectory, welcome news for those in an age cohort whose jobless rate had been on the rise in earlier months.
In December, unemployment for those aged 16 to 24, excluding enrolled students, dropped by 0.4 percentage points, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.



Youth unemployment rate continues decline

National Bureau of Statistics head Kang Yi acknowledged that consumer demand continues to be sluggish and more action is needed.
Kang recommended an extension of the consumer goods and equipment trade-in scheme, as well as seizing the opportunity presented by new trends like the “ice and snow economy” for winter activities and the “silver economy” filling the needs of the country’s ageing population.



More action pledged to boost demand

And with that, the conference is over. Bureau officials departed without taking further questions on their way out.


That’s a wrap

With the National Bureau of Statistics press conference concluded and the headline economic data for 2024 revealed, here are the salient points we gleaned from this morning’s array of facts and figures.

China achieved 5 per cent economic growth in 2024, meeting its annual target after stimulus measures boosted fourth-quarter growth to 5.4 per cent.


China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with a modest rise in new births outnumbered by deaths.


Consumption slightly recovered, with retail sales of consumer goods growing 3.5 per cent year-on-year, and 3.7 per cent in December.


The property market showed signs of stabilising. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities surveyed by the NBS, new home prices in first-tier cities edged up by 0.2 per cent, their first increase since June 2023.


Industrial output rose 5.8 per cent in 2024, with expansion observed in tech manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and industrial robots.


China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, 0.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier, with the youth unemployment figure dropping by 0.4 percentage points in December, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.


Officials expressed confidence in economic growth for 2025 but acknowledged challenges like insufficient demand, production difficulties for some businesses and external hurdles.

