China’s factory-activity growth slows as recovery remains bumpy, Caixin PMI shows

Rate of output expansion eases to three-month low in December as growth in new orders slows

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Staff handle coolant radiators for air conditioners at a factory in China’s Anhui province. Policymakers have vowed to expand a consumer-goods trade-in scheme this year. Photo: AP

Published: 11:01am, 2 Jan 2025

China’s factory activity grew in December, but at a slower-than-expected pace, as overall sales were dampened by falling export orders amid concerns over the trade outlook, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday.

The data echoed an official survey on Tuesday showing that manufacturing activity expanded modestly last month, reinforcing calls for more stimulus to spur growth this year as Donald Trump will soon take office and likely intensify US-China trade tensions.

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI nudged down to 50.5 in December from 51.5 the previous month, undershooting analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll of 51.7.

The rate of output expansion eased to a three-month low as growth in new orders slowed.

New export orders, in particular, returned to contractionary terrain, marking the fourth month of decline in the past five months. Subdued external economic conditions and threats of new US tariffs pose major risks for the world’s top exporter of goods.

While some Chinese exporters and their US buyers may have ramped up shipments recently in expectation of the Trump tariffs, a report published by China Beige Book suggested that the last-minute push may be waning.

“The pulling forward of trade before anticipated 2025 tariffs has ended. The only rescue in on-year terms is if Trump’s China-tariff talk is hot air,” China Beige Book said.