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Andrew Mullen

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022
China’s exports beat expectations and hit a 27-month high in October after rising by 12.7 per cent, year on year, to US$309 billion.
“Export values grew, year on year, at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
But Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the better-than-expected export growth “may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments to mitigate the damage” they expect next year from potential trade war repercussions.
US president-elect Donald Trump has hinted at potential tariffs of 60 per cent on shipments from China.
Tariffs from the European Union on Chinese-made electric vehicles also started at the end of October.
“Despite mounting trade barriers, Chinese exports continued to defy gravity,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore.
Notably, cars and steel are among the products under international fire, but shipments of both still saw year-on-year increases in the double digits, Tan said.


2. Mixed bag for imports
China’s imports fell by 2.3 per cent from a year earlier in October, compared with the 0.3 per cent growth seen in September.
“But this reflects price and base effects. In volume terms, imports appear to have edged up, month on month. And we think they will rise further in the near term,” Huang added.
Crude oil imports fell by 9 per cent in volume terms, while steel imports plunged almost 20 per cent from a year earlier.
“The sixth straight month of decline in steel imports highlights the severity of the property market turmoil,” said Tan at Moody’s Analytics, pointing to the importance of the key construction material.
3. Trade balance rises
China posted a trade surplus of US$95.72 billion in October, compared with US$81.71 billion in September.
“China’s foreign trade surplus was US$96 billion in October, compared with US$82 billion in September. The larger surplus came as exports jumped 12.7 per cent, year over year, while imports dropped 2.3 per cent,” said Tan at Moody’s Analytics.
“Rising geopolitical tensions threaten to hamper China’s export performance, while a sluggish domestic economy puts a lid on import growth.”
4. Improvement across the board for trade partners
China saw an increase in exports to its major trading partners in October, with shipments to the United States increasing by 8.1 per cent.
Shipments to the European Union also rose by 12.72 per cent, while China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose by 15.78 per cent in October compared with a year earlier.
Exports to Russia, meanwhile, increased by 26.7 per cent, recording their fastest growth since last November.


5. Exports to stay strong despite Trump tariff threat
Huang at Capital Economics expects China’s shipments to stay strong in the coming months, with any drag from potential Trump tariffs unlikely to materialise until the second half of next year.
And import volumes, which ticked up last month, are likely to rise further in the short-run as accelerated fiscal spending shores up demand for industrial commodities, he added.
And Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management, pointing to potential trade war ramifications in the first quarter of next year, said: “We cannot rely on exports to carry China’s economy. I expect fiscal policy will become more proactive next year as a pillar for growth.”


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China’s exports last month posted their fastest growth since July 2022, while imports fell


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Explainer | China exports surge, but trade war escalation looms: 5 takeaways from October trade data

China’s exports last month posted their fastest growth since July 2022, while imports fell

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022