bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

moreOnThisArticles

urlAlias

commentCount

sponsorType

authorLocations

authors

paywallTypes

corrections

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

socialHeadline

headline

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

publishedDate

additionalInfoBoxes

images

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

createdDate

sponsor

factSheets

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

copyrighted

customTimezone

liveContents

Andrew Mullen

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022
China’s exports beat expectations and hit a 27-month high in October after rising by 12.7 per cent, year on year, to US$309 billion.
“Export values grew, year on year, at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
But Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the better-than-expected export growth “may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments to mitigate the damage” they expect next year from potential trade war repercussions.
US president-elect Donald Trump has hinted at potential tariffs of 60 per cent on shipments from China.
Tariffs from the European Union on Chinese-made electric vehicles also started at the end of October.
“Despite mounting trade barriers, Chinese exports continued to defy gravity,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore.
Notably, cars and steel are among the products under international fire, but shipments of both still saw year-on-year increases in the double digits, Tan said.


2. Mixed bag for imports
China’s imports fell by 2.3 per cent from a year earlier in October, compared with the 0.3 per cent growth seen in September.
“But this reflects price and base effects. In volume terms, imports appear to have edged up, month on month. And we think they will rise further in the near term,” Huang added.
Crude oil imports fell by 9 per cent in volume terms, while steel imports plunged almost 20 per cent from a year earlier.
“The sixth straight month of decline in steel imports highlights the severity of the property market turmoil,” said Tan at Moody’s Analytics, pointing to the importance of the key construction material.
3. Trade balance rises
China posted a trade surplus of US$95.72 billion in October, compared with US$81.71 billion in September.
“China’s foreign trade surplus was US$96 billion in October, compared with US$82 billion in September. The larger surplus came as exports jumped 12.7 per cent, year over year, while imports dropped 2.3 per cent,” said Tan at Moody’s Analytics.
“Rising geopolitical tensions threaten to hamper China’s export performance, while a sluggish domestic economy puts a lid on import growth.”
4. Improvement across the board for trade partners
China saw an increase in exports to its major trading partners in October, with shipments to the United States increasing by 8.1 per cent.
Shipments to the European Union also rose by 12.72 per cent, while China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose by 15.78 per cent in October compared with a year earlier.
Exports to Russia, meanwhile, increased by 26.7 per cent, recording their fastest growth since last November.


5. Exports to stay strong despite Trump tariff threat
Huang at Capital Economics expects China’s shipments to stay strong in the coming months, with any drag from potential Trump tariffs unlikely to materialise until the second half of next year.
And import volumes, which ticked up last month, are likely to rise further in the short-run as accelerated fiscal spending shores up demand for industrial commodities, he added.
And Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management, pointing to potential trade war ramifications in the first quarter of next year, said: “We cannot rely on exports to carry China’s economy. I expect fiscal policy will become more proactive next year as a pillar for growth.”


Donald Trump’s China policy could pit deal makers against ideologues: analysts

Asia-Pacific to see slowing economic growth amid trade tensions, policy uncertainty: Apec

Ex-WTO head says China-EU ‘united front’ can counter Trump trade curbs

Trump eyes Rubio for top diplomat, but will sanctions create chaos for US-China ties?

China trade

China exports surge, but trade war escalation looms: 5 takeaways from October trade data

A container is lifted by a crane backdropped by the construction of the Chinese-funded port in Chancay, Peru. Photo: AP

A container ship carries new-energy-vehicle parts at the Qinzhou Port in south China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. Photo: Xinhua

China’s export growth hits 27-month high as Trump’s tariffs loom large

Shipping containers are seen at Nanjing port in Nanjing, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province. Photo: AFP

Donald Trump waves while walking off stage following early results from the 2024 US presidential election in Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Reuters

Chinese economists push reform as stimulus takes hold, but Trump win creates uncertainty

With China facing another four years of Donald Trump in the White House, several of the country’s most prominent economists have called for structural reforms to boost demand further. Photo: AP

With China facing another four years of Donald Trump in the White House, several of the country’s most prominent economists have called for structural reforms to boost demand further. Photo: EPA-EFE

US agricultural interests, tied to China, see hope in expo orders this week

The China International Import Expo kicked off in Shanghai on Tuesday. Photo: Xinhua

China, Australia sign avocado agreement at Shanghai expo amid warming ties

Avocados Australia and the China Chamber of Commerce of Import & Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By-Products signed a memorandum of understanding at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Wednesday. Photo: Mandy Zuo

An Australian exhibitor at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. Photo: Ren Wei

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits the Australian stalls at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai in November 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE

As US election comes to a close, 1 thing is certain: more tariffs on China

 Illustration: Henry Wong

Economy

Economic Indicators

China Economy

Global Economy

News

China

China’s exports last month posted their fastest growth since July 2022, while imports fell


China’s exports last month posted their fastest growth since July 2022, while imports fell.


China economy

China's economic recovery

Trade

European Union

US-China trade war

US-China relations

China manufacturing

Donald Trump

US-China trade war: All stories

United States

China tariffs

Asean

US presidential election 2024

Russia

Provide background, definition and detail of a specific topic, helping the reader understand how something works or what has happened in the past.  (Eg. What is Nafta? US and Mexico are on the verge of revising trade deal.)


Explainer

Explainer | China exports surge, but trade war escalation looms: 5 takeaways from October trade data

China’s exports last month posted their fastest growth since July 2022, while imports fell

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022