China’s export growth hits 27-month high as Trump’s tariffs loom large

China’s exports grew at a time Beijing is eager for trade to help meet the annual economic growth target

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Donald Trump waves while walking off stage following early results from the 2024 US presidential election in Palm Beach County Convention Center, in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Reuters

Published: 11:32am, 7 Nov 2024Updated: 6:19pm, 7 Nov 2024

China’s export growth hit a 27-month high in October, as exporters rushed to front-load orders in anticipation of potential heavy tariffs to be imposed by president-elect Donald Trump after his return to the White House.

But analysts said China is more experienced and equipped for a new trade war, despite potentially facing broader and higher tariff barriers, and the latest strong surge in exports may help the world’s second-largest economy to hit its annual economic growth target.

Exports rose by 12.7 per cent year on year to US$309 billion in October, according to customs data released on Thursday.

The figure was significantly higher than the expected 5.5 per cent increase surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and exceeded the 2.4 per cent rise recorded in September.

“[The trade growth] may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments in order to mitigate the damage of potential trade war next year,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Trump’s victory over Vice-President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has heightened concerns among Chinese exporters, as his expected trade policies toward China – including potential tariffs of 60 per cent – add uncertainties to its trade outlook, analysts said.