Explainer | Is China still within striking distance of its full-year growth target?
China’s gross domestic product growth in the third quarter was largely in line with expectations, while retail sales hit a four-month high
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02:15
China sees slowest economic growth in over a year with 4.6% GDP in third quarter
1. Growth target ‘difficult to achieve’
“While it is a marginal decline from the second quarter, it makes the official growth target of 5 per cent difficult to achieve if this trend continues to the end of the year,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Tan Junyu, a regional economist for North Asia with credit insurance company Coface, said the GDP number was consistent with a “soft patch” of domestic economic indicators over the summer.
“More specifically, the demand-side weakness has trickled down to production, which was previously supported by a recovery in exports. The lingering deflationary pressure, evidenced by the negative GDP deflator for a sixth consecutive quarter, may also prompt more businesses to slash their production,” he said.
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said the slowdown largely reflected a stronger base for comparison, and in seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter terms, growth recovered from a downwardly revised 0.5 per cent to 0.9 per cent.
2. Trade-in programme lifts retail sales to 4-month high
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