Explainer | Can China’s export momentum last? 5 takeaways from August trade data

China’s exports rose 8.7 per cent from a year earlier in August, while imports were up by 0.5 per cent

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Vehicles carrying imported goods head for Youyiguan Port in Pingxiang City, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. Photo: Xinhua

Andrew Mullen

Published: 12:00am, 11 Sep 2024

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1. Exports buck trend, hit 17-month high

China’s exports rose 8.7 per cent from a year earlier to US$308.65 billion in August, beating the expected increase of 7.04 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and topping the 7 per cent increase in July.

Year-on-year export values in August grew at the fastest pace in 17 months, and export volumes hit record highs, according to Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

“Exports remained strong in August,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. And ING’s chief economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, said “exports defied expectations”.

“While trade data is difficult to forecast, the upside miss is still notable as the direction was different than expected,” Song said.

“We have had several months of purchasing managers’ index surveys showing slowing new export orders, as well as shrinking orders on hand. This would typically flag gradually weaker exports, as well.

“Official data has managed to buck this trend for at least August, as exports picked up at a 2.7 per cent month-on-month pace.”

Song also pointed to an “encouraging and somewhat surprising development” as auto exports rose in August, which brought year-on-year, year-to-date growth to 20 per cent from 18.1 per cent in July.