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Deaths in China to reach ‘an unprecedented scale’, peak at 19 million in 2061

  • China reported 11.1 million deaths last year, which outnumbered the 9 million new births, adding to its population woes as its society ages

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China reported 11.1 million deaths last year, which outnumbered the 9 million new births. Photo: Xinhua

China is poised to face mortality on an “an unprecedented scale” in the coming decades, adding woes to its demographic crisis in terms of rapid ageing and plunging fertility, according to a research report.

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Earlier this month, “China will face a peak in population mortality” became one of the hottest topics on popular Chinese social media platform Weibo, sparking heated discussions.

The world’s second-largest economy, which used to catch global attention for its demographic dividend, may see annual deaths peak at 19 million in 2061, Fudan University professors Zhang Zhen and Li Qiang said in the latest issue of the bimonthly Population Research magazine released at the end of May.

In contrast, the total population of the Netherlands was around 18 million last year.

“Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families and society as a whole,” the professors said in the report.

China reported 11.1 million deaths last year, which outnumbered the 9 million new births, meaning its population saw a decline for a second year in 2023, and it is estimated by the United National to have been overtaken by India’s as the world’s most populous country.
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