China’s midyear review: what to expect when third plenum opens, and what numbers can reveal
- Structural challenges demand urgent action, economists and analysts tell Beijing as ‘everyone feels that the economy has not yet bottomed out’
Like parents anxiously perusing a child’s report card after a gruelling term of learning curves, eyes that digest Beijing’s midyear economic report on Monday will react accordingly.
On the first day of the reform-centric third plenum, seeing a half-year growth rate above 5 per cent – in line with the annual target – may not be enough to widen eyes. But it would reflect China’s economic resilience and underpin Beijing’s insistence that the 2024 target of “around 5 per cent” can be met.
That is the message repeatedly relayed to investors and consumers as leadership looks to get China’s economic engine purring like it used to.
However, on the minds of many analysts is a contrasting grim reality seen through the lens of high-frequency data, proxy indicators and some official parameters – revealing structural challenges that await solutions from the nation’s leaders.
“Everyone feels that the economy has not yet bottomed out, and there is huge uncertainty about how it will touch bottom,” said Liu Yuhui, an outspoken researcher with the China Chief Economist Forum, a Shanghai-based think tank.
