China population: Beijing rounds up experts for birth rate recommendations as youths report reluctance

China has brought together high-level officials and experts to discuss potential ways to increase fertility rates or prevent continued decline
Gathering comes as newly published survey shows young people hesitant to start a family, even with new policies intended to boost births

China's population

Mia Nulimaimaiti

Published: 7:00am, 15 May 2024

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China’s top political advisory body has gathered some of its highest ranking members to discuss how to build an environment friendly to raising families, a clarifying moment for the country’s worrying demographic trends as earlier incentives show little progress in buoying a sharp decline in fertility rates.

Despite Beijing’s relaxation of limits on the number of children permitted per household and promises of financial support to new parents, a recently published survey showed a lack of employment prospects and maternity benefits are large enough deterrents for would-be parents to outweigh the benefits of cash payments or tax incentives.

Over 100 members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), many of whom are subject-matter experts in demography or economics, joined the meeting in Beijing on Saturday, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

“Beijing needs to systematically plan its population policy and increase social support for childbearing to alleviate the financial burdens associated with parenthood and children’s education,” said Vice-Premier Liu Guozhong.

The high-level conclave underscores the intensity of focus China has placed on looming demographic challenges as the country – historically reliant on a large labour force to fuel economic growth – attempts to halt a precipitous slide in birth rates.

A total of 9.02 million babies were born in 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January – the lowest figure since the founding of the country in 1949.

In the same year, the fertility rate in China – the number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime – plunged from 2.6 births in the late 1980s to 1.19, according to data from the United Nations.

The present figure is significantly lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 and even trails Japan’s fertility rate of 1.31, a country in a long and public struggle with low birth rates and an ageing population.

03:23

China posts record-low birth rate despite government push for babies

Beijing’s demographic disquiet extends beyond labour shortages. The low fertility rate has exacerbated a population imbalance caused by decades of the country’s one-child policy – an official limit of one child for most households – with a shrinking cohort of working-age individuals expected to support a growing elderly population, posing a particular challenge to pension sustainability.

In 2016, Beijing relaxed the policy and allowed couples previously under the one-child limit to have a second child, and in 2021, it raised the threshold to three. Several provinces like Hunan and Henan have increased their childcare allowances.

However, these factors are of least concern for educated youth in China, according to a survey conducted by Mao Zhaoyan, a professor at Capital University of Economics and Business.

Conversely, policies to propel employment – especially for young women – were named as the most conducive for incentivising childbirth.

The survey polled 32,282 college students across eight provinces in China between November 2021 and January 2022, a time when the Covid-19 pandemic was wreaking havoc on the job market.

However, even after virus control measures were lifted at the end of 2022, China’s employment picture remains subdued. Government data showed about 15.3 per cent of those aged 16 to 24 were out of work in March.

Around 60 per cent of college students said they believe ensuring employment equity for women and offering sufficient paid maternity leave are the primary factors which would increase their willingness to give birth, according to survey results. The findings were posted Friday on the WeChat account of the Journal of Youth Exploration, a publication of the Communist Youth League of Guangzhou.

Nearly 40 per cent of respondents cited sufficient parental leave for men and access to high-quality public schooling as conditions that would boost their interest in starting a family, with over 30 per cent citing the importance of flexible work schedules.

In addition, over 40 per cent of students said that their fertility intentions were unchanged by the shift to a three-child policy, while only around 10 per cent named policies such as tax breaks, housing incentives and cash allowances for childbirth as having an impact on their decision. Nearly 18 per cent reported an unwavering opposition to having a child, saying no policy could influence their decision.

Several provinces in China extended maternity leave for women from around three months to nearly six months in 2021, while men’s maternity leave remained unchanged at half a month.

The cost burden of extended maternity leave mostly falls on companies, dissuading many from hiring women and dampening market confidence at a time when economic morale is already low.

“We need to provide young people with maternity-friendly work environments,” Mao said. “[Policymakers] should include incentives for maternity and parental leave in maternity insurance to avoid shifting the burden to recruiters.”

China is one of the world’s most expensive places to rear children. In 2023, the cost of raising a first child to the age of 18 was estimated at 538,000 yuan (US$74,351) in a study by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute – 6.3 times the country’s per-capita gross domestic product.