China’s high pork prices are dropping, but African swine fever still poses a threat to supply

Wholesale price of pork has fallen for nine straight weeks, approaching the level from August 2019, but remains twice as high as it was in mid-2018 before the virus hit

Some analysts expect the price to gradually continue dropping, but others point to volatility and a lack of transparency in official data

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The wholesale price of pork, a staple food among Chinese households, could remain volatile this year. Photo: Reuters

Published: 7:30pm, 8 Apr 2021Updated: 8:12pm, 8 Apr 2021

Although pork prices in China have reached their lowest point in more than a year and a half, stabilising the nation’s pork supply remains a challenge amid risks of a possible second wave of the devastating African swine fever, analysts say.

The wholesale price of pork, a staple food among Chinese households, has fallen for nine straight weeks, touching 33 yuan (US$5) per kilogram this week, which was close to the level in August 2019, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

This round of declining pork prices is partly seasonal, with analysts noting that demand tapered off after the Lunar New Year holiday in February. But farmers rushing to sell their live pigs, after new variants of the African swine fever virus appeared in parts of China in recent months, also played a major role.

Like the retail price of pork meat, which plunged to 42.50 yuan last week, the retail price for live pigs similarly fell to nearly 26 yuan per kilogram, the government data shows.

African swine fever, which was first reported in China in August 2018, caused pork prices to surge in 2019 and 2020. In late February this year, researchers at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences published an article saying new variants of the virus – with lower death rates but harder to detect early – had emerged in some Chinese provinces and posed a challenge to controlling the disease.

The Chinese government has been encouraging pig farms to consolidate in an effort to stabilise the nation’s hog supply. Last year, the central government earmarked at least 4.5 billion yuan (US$687.5 million) to improve infrastructure in pig farms.