China pork crisis far from over, despite green shoots of recovery in pig inventory, analysts say

On Friday, China’s agricultural ministry said inventory of breeding sows showed the first monthly increase since April 2018, suggesting a ‘bottoming out’

But analysts are convinced the problem will continue to plague China into next year, with further falls in pig population and surges in pork prices expected

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Chinese workers unload pork in a wholesale hall of a market in Beijing, China, 18 November 2019. The Chinese agricultural ministry has urged all-out efforts in China's nine provincial-level regions to restore hog production while authorities were engaged in efforts to prevent and control African swine fever, according to media reports. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 6:00am, 26 Nov 2019Updated: 6:00am, 26 Nov 2019

Even amid the first rebound in the inventory of breeding sows for 18 months, the fallout from the African swine fever outbreak that has devastated China’s pork industry since August 2018 is far from over, analysts said.

In fact, hog inventory is unlikely to return to growth over the last two months of this year, said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank, which means any “steady increase” would not come until mid-2020.

The analysis came after director of animal husbandry and veterinary bureau at China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Yang Zhenhai, projected that the decline in pig production was bottoming out. On Friday, Yang attributed the news to government measures implemented in August to ensure the supply of live hogs, which would in turn prevent further prices rises.

The ministry said the national inventory of breeding sows climbed by 0.6 per cent in October, in the first monthly increase since April 2018, reversing a 3 per cent fall during the previous month. It now aims to restore 80 per cent of its infantry of live hog inventory by the end of next year.

However, Rabobank predicted that China needed more than five years before pork production could recover to pre-swine fever levels.