Andrew Hammond

Opinion | Moscow attack a blow to Russia, but won’t slow its war on Ukraine

Kremlin has tried to blame Kyiv for the terrorist attack, perhaps to divert difficult questions over why Russia’s security services failed to prevent it

With Russia likely to step up its war effort, the conflict is shaping up to be a war of attribution, the outcome of which remains highly unpredictable

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Russian President Vladimir Putin lights a candle to commemorate the victims of a terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue, on a day of national mourning in Moscow on March 24. Photo: EPA-EFE / Kremlin Pool

Andrew Hammond

Published: 6:30pm, 26 Mar 2024

Vladimir Putin recently won a new six-year presidential term, until 2030, by which time he will have led Russia longer than Joseph Stalin. However, Putin’s celebrations were cut short by last weekend’s horrific attack on a Moscow concert hall, which could now have implications for the Ukraine war.

This was the worst terrorist attack on Moscow in decades, highlighting yet again the vulnerabilities of the Russian central state, especially as key security resources are diverted to Ukraine. It shows how the regime’s grip on power is seemingly a mile wide, but sometimes only inches thick.

This is the second time in less than a year that its weakness has been exposed, following last summer’s mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries. That episode showed the fissures within the security services and military intelligence over the trajectory of the Ukraine war.

Similarly, the Moscow concert hall attack suggests that even though Russia now appears to be in a significantly stronger position in Ukraine than last summer, the regime may still in fact be fragile. This is despite Putin’s extraordinary political longevity for a quarter of the century.

Last weekend’s tragedy is a sharp blow to the regime, coming so swiftly after Putin’s election win. The Russian president is fast becoming one of the longest-serving world leaders of modern times, alongside Fidel Castro, who managed 49 years as Cuban premier and then president, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian supreme leader since 1989.

Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), the affiliate of terrorist group Isis in Afghanistan, has been linked to last weekend’s attack, in which armed individuals opened fire on concertgoers at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall. Isis-K has been fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, which it regards as insufficiently militant.