Opinion | In the Middle East, Biden’s ‘little carrot, no stick’ approach isn’t working

The United States has been engaged in a low-intensity conflict in the Middle East for several years, which seriously escalated after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. Moreover, US President Joe Biden’s diplomatic outreach to Iran, a cornerstone of his foreign policy, has failed to achieve any concrete long-term results.

The shadow war between the US and its partners and Iran’s “axis of resistance” has been marked by a dangerous game of brinkmanship, which is now turning into a vicious downward cycle. The situation is so volatile that a full-scale regional war could break out at any point, with immense global repercussions.

The recent killing of three US soldiers in a drone attack on a US base in Jordan could be a defining moment in the unfolding conflict. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a term used to describe a loose coalition of Iranian-backed militias that oppose American support for Israel in the war in Gaza and broader US influence and presence in the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria.

In a transformational election year, Biden is under intense pressure to act forcefully and go beyond his standard sporadic armed pinpricks. In a dire warning for his 2024 presidential campaign, a recent Gallup poll shows his approval rating at the lowest for a third-year president since Jimmy Carter, who served only one term.

Biden is likely to respond with a series of actions, including strikes on a far wider range of targets, as well as cyberattacks and covert operations over an extended period of time. Despite calls for direct strikes on Iran, this is unlikely at the moment but remains an option.