Opinion | Why Philippines will struggle to forge South China Sea alliance with Vietnam

Just before Indonesia’s chairmanship of Asean ended, it mobilised the region’s foreign ministers for an unusual diplomatic act. On December 30, they issued a stand-alone statement on the South China Sea, amid escalating tensions, particularly between the Philippines and China.

Expressing “concern”, the statement by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations called on rival claimant states to “exercise self-restraint” and “avoid actions that may further complicate the situation”.

Crucially, the grouping’s chief diplomats referred to “our maritime sphere” and reaffirmed the “unity and solidarity” among members – which include the Philippines, a founding Asean state that has been involved in several run-ins with Chinese maritime forces around the hotly disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the past few months alone.

Few in Manila, however, were consoled. After all, Asean has neither criticised China, a major trading partner, nor provided any concrete help beyond reiterating a commitment to the seemingly never-ending negotiations with China for a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

With little hope of tangible Asean support, the Philippines appears to be banking on strategic alliances with like-minded neighbours, in particular Vietnam. President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is scheduled to visit Hanoi this month, and by all indications, will want to explore a potentially consequential alliance.