Opinion | From Gaza to Ukraine, US risks imperial overstretch as China waits in the wings

With US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s announcement last week of Operation Prosperity Guardian – an alliance to defend “freedom of navigation” from attacks by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels on “Israel-linked” ships in the Red Sea – the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza is in danger of a spillover that goes against America’s intention to focus on its rivalry with China.

The Biden administration has made it known that China is the only rival which possesses both the willingness and means to challenge America’s global supremacy and that the US will concentrate its efforts on that challenge.

For Washington to win the game of global leadership, one big way is to manoeuvre so that China gets into a war, one way or another, while the US remains aloof from one itself. This would best serve American interests, as seen from its masterful experiences in the early stages of the first and second world wars, and its sobering experiences during the Korean war and Vietnam war amid its global competition with the former Soviet Union.

In Ukraine, Russia is turning the corner in its war, with President Vladimir Putin ordering a bombardment of Odesa port, in effect blockading Ukraine, while support for the Zelensky government from America and its allies is losing steam.

As anyone who pays attention will see, Russia’s war efforts have been resilient largely thanks to China’s hefty industrial capabilities, which have been mobilised to shore up a Moscow comprehensively sanctioned by the American-led alliance. For proof of the indispensability of that support, one does not have to look far: trade between the two countries has climbed to a record high of US$218 billion for January to November 2023 – up 26.7 per cent year on year – of which, tellingly, China’s exports to Russia have grown 50 per cent.