Richard Heydarian

Opinion | Taiwan, US elections and South China Sea tensions could make 2024 even more geopolitically perilous

Rising Philippine-China tensions over disputes related to the South China Sea have coincided with deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington

Elections next year in Taiwan and the US could further inflame tensions in the region. There is an urgent need for a mutually acceptable compromises on high-stakes issues

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Richard Heydarian

Published: 5:30am, 27 Dec 2023

“We have to do something that we have not done before. We have to come up with a new concept, a new principle, a new idea,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr said in response to escalating tensions in the South China Sea.

“We do not want to go to the point where there are incidents that might cause an actual violent conflict. Maybe from a mistake or a misunderstanding, and these things happen all the time,” he added, emphasising the need for nothing less than a “paradigm shift” in the country’s foreign policy.

The stark comments by Marcos came shortly before an exchange between top diplomats of China and the Philippines. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned “China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads” in a call with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo and called on the Philippines to act with caution.

The situation is increasingly dire. In the past three months alone, the Philippines and China have been involved in multiple dangerous encounters in the South China Sea, particularly over the Second Thomas Shoal. Both sides have taken an uncompromising stance on the maritime dispute, raising the risk of unwanted conflict.

To make matters worse, rising Philippine-China tensions have coincided with deteriorating relations between the world’s two superpowers. Elections next year, first in Taiwan and later in the United States, could further inflame tensions in the region.

02:41

Marcos Jnr says China showing interest in South China Sea atolls that lie close to the Philippines

As Marcos correctly pointed out, we need a “paradigm shift” which allows each side to preserve their core interests while instituting sufficient guardrails to prevent unwanted conflict.