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Opinion | New year, same old? Yes, but with the chance of generational transformation
- The events that dominated the past 11 months are likely to remain drivers of geopolitics and the worldwide economic outlook as this year’s macroeconomic questions spill over into 2024
- Artificial intelligence, productivity growth and renewable energy are the areas to watch
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
The truism that the year ahead struggles under the past year’s yoke is even more the case for 2024. The events that dominated the last 11 months – from wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to US-China trade tensions to central banks’ anti-inflation campaigns – will remain drivers of geopolitics and the economic outlook.
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Unforeseen disasters, political missteps and corporate upheavals will intervene, too. There will also almost assuredly be financial windfalls for some in the Year of the Wood Dragon.
This year’s macroeconomic questions will continue to hound the global economy. Is the hard part over for monetary tightening, or will inflation remain stubborn? Will China turn around its economy and escape “Japanification” by using government stimulus, or will structural weaknesses and crackdowns on businesses derail growth?
Will economies better manage trade flare-ups, or will domestic politics and national security concerns produce more sabre-rattling retaliation? Will the permacrises such as climate change, healthcare strains and rich-poor inequities paralyse governments, or will the opportunities created by these problems become a turning point in our history?
Most of the answers are likely to be the same next year as they are today. Seismic shifts are slow-moving phenomena measured in fractions from one year to the next, but across a decade they amount to galvanising change.
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China’s economy sees a resurgence in the third quarter, beating forecasts
China’s economy sees a resurgence in the third quarter, beating forecasts
Less obvious but equally trenchant trends in the global economy lie ahead, too. Companies worldwide are under pressure to break the persistent stagnation in productivity. If profits and share valuations are to increase strongly – a necessity for robust growth – the volume and value of output per unit of input must increase.
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