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Opinion | How Argentina’s radical new pro-US leader Javier Milei could rock Latin America – and the world
- For a start, the new president wants Argentina out of trade blocs such as Brics and Mercosur, and to cut ties with socialist or communist states including China
- Worryingly, his ideas could reflect a growing unhappiness globally with the geopolitical status quo and herald more fragmentation
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As the pendulum of geopolitics swings in a different direction, driven by the Ukraine war and US-China rivalry, one of the new realities is that populism is back, with a fierceness unseen in modern times. Look no further than Latin America. As Argentina grapples with an unprecedented economic crisis, the populace has elected Javier Milei as president. His ideas, if implemented, could reshape global affairs.
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When campaigning for president, Milei proposed bold changes to his nation’s relationship with the rest of the world.
He pledged to cut ties with “socialist countries” such as China; he called for Argentina to exit Mercosur – a regional trade bloc with Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay – and to overhaul the trade relationship with Brazil; he pledged closer relations with the United States; and he said Argentina would no longer join Brics.
Should Milei follow through on these promises, his decisions would not only affect Argentina. They would also drive geopolitics in a new direction.
Let’s start with Latin America. Earlier this year, Brazil proposed a new approach to rebuilding sovereignty in the region, focused on introducing a common currency, energy market and even a unified approach to security and defence. It was seen as based on Latin America having had several governments that were either centrist or leftist. Behind these proposals was an idea, by Brazil, to relaunch the Union of South American Nations, which never came to fruition.
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The election of Milei changes the calculus. Will he want to “plug into” a common energy market or common currency? Or will he take an “Argentina first” approach?
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