The View | Israel’s borders are safe, but Gaza war puts its future security in peril
- A look at search trends suggests the narrative focus is no longer on Israel or Hamas but on Gaza and the rapidly developing humanitarian crisis
- The enduring narrative of the Gazan people’s suffering suggests a potential long-term threat to Israel’s security as memories of the last month will die hard
One of the world’s largest industries in terms of litres of printer’s ink is forecasting the future. We all want to know what risks are coming so we can prepare against the bad stuff and look forward to the good. Forecasting is difficult, and prediction is impossible.
In reality, history often doesn’t repeat itself but more commonly rhymes. We often see déjà vu happening all over again and take that as a guide that we will see a similar outcome as before, hoping that this time it is not too different.
History is an uncertain guide because the exact circumstances are unrepeatable. Dominant narratives flow and bifurcate like a river; they can be strong and dominant upstream but turn out to be fake, off-target or misleading as time goes on.
Alternative narratives might dominate at different times and at different strengths to inject new facts, activate dormant narratives or insert noise into our expectations. As a narrative develops, uncertainties become risks to which we can apply probabilities with increasing certainty. When we reach a point of certainty, a new dominant narrative emerges.
