Salvador Marinaro

Opinion | Why Argentina’s presidential run-off could rock China’s relations with Latin America

While Sergio Massa won the first round of Argentina’s presidential election, the chance of far-right Javier Milei winning a run-off has dark implications

Milei has advocated a variety of radical positions, including severing ties with China, that threaten to upend Argentina’s economy and diplomacy

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A worker holds a poster of Argentine economy minister Sergio Massa, in Buenos Aires on October 23, a day after Massa won the first round of the presidential election. Massa and anti-establishment outsider Javier Milei are set for a run-off presidential poll next month in a contest between two wildly different versions of the country. Photo: AFP

Salvador Marinaro

Published: 8:30pm, 26 Oct 2023

Shortly after Argentina’s primary election in August, when the far-right candidate Javier Milei’s victory sent shock waves through the political system, I had my annual call with an old schoolmate. After a brief talk about his mother’s health and holiday plans, we delved into the topic dominating national conversations: Argentina’s most unpredictable presidential race in two decades.

This election isn’t solely about domestic policy; it represents a potential shift in Latin American international alignments. The choice between the ruling party’s candidate, Sergio Massa, and libertarian contender Milei goes beyond the presidential seat. It’s a clash of two world views with significant implications for Argentina’s stance towards China.

It didn’t take long for my former classmate to express his support for Milei. Coming from the deeply conservative north, an area divided between traditional landowners and mining ventures, his position wasn’t surprising. What was striking, however, was his employment in the public sector, which Milei has vowed to gut. In the end, he admitted he voted for the candidate to “set the cat among the pigeons”.

This fervour, coupled with the strong backlash against the far-right surge, encapsulates the sentiments many Argentinians held going into the polls last weekend. Surprisingly, the Peronist Massa – a member of the dominant political movement – received 36.6 per cent of the vote on Sunday while Milei maintained his primary election performance of around 30 per cent. These figures pave the way for a run-off on November 19.

In just three months of presidential campaigning, relations with China have become a central issue in political debates, spurred by Milei’s advocacy for severed ties. For the first time, Sino-Argentine relations are under the spotlight, with divided opinions on its role in economic development and national security.

Milei’s explosive rhetoric has thrown Argentina’s political landscape into disarray. His radical proposals range from dissolving the central bank to adopting the US dollar. His belief in the free market extends beyond just the economy. Milei has also supported deregulating weapons and even the sale of human organs.