Opinion | Palestine question: amid US failures, can China step in as a fair mediator in Israel-Gaza war?

The question of Palestine is of immense significance in the Middle East – settling the issue would contribute a foundational element of peace in the region. The recent escalation, triggered by Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and Israel’s response, also has significant geopolitical and economic ramifications for the rest of the world.

For many decades, the US has been the primary power broker in the Middle East but, recently, China has been assuming a role of mediator. In March, Beijing facilitated the reconciliation of relations between historic Gulf adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia, a development some see as indicative of a shifting global order.

Meanwhile, US efforts to coax a diplomatic normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been disrupted by the latest outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Regionally, the violence threatens to spread and could potentially involve Iranian proxies from Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – Tehran has made no secret of its support for Hamas. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah, which has clashed with Israel, has formidable military capabilities. Adding to the risk is the strategic significance of the Golan Heights, a water-rich, fertile area that Israel annexed from Syria, where Iranian-backed groups are known to be active.

Economically, the crisis could severely affect the global oil and gas supply chain, already strained by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, which has a daily output of 18.2 million barrels of crude oil, could be exacerbated if the vital Strait of Hormuz – responsible for transporting almost 17 million barrels daily – faces a blockage. This waterway also sees the daily transit of 3.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas, constituting 18 per cent of light natural gas shipments worldwide.