With US-China relations seemingly stuck in a deep freeze, President Xi Jinping hit the nail on the head at a recent last-minute meeting with US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his bipartisan delegation. Xi stressed that the Thucydides Trap was “
not inevitable”, that the “wide world can accommodate China and the US in their respective development and common prosperity”.
At the heart of it all is an American refusal to accept that the world has become
multipolar. Rhetoric about US primacy lingers – apart from America and China, there appears to be no credible third centre of power validating the concept of a multipolar world. Yet, even with its military might, what the US wants can no longer always prevail – what is happening in
Ukraine and the
Middle East may be a case in point.
As Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper of the Stimson Centre, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank, argued in Foreign Policy last week: “A multipolar system doesn’t require three powers of equal size; it just requires that significant power is concentrated in more than two states. Today, the middle powers – from Japan to India – are significantly more influential than they once were.”
Apart from the middle powers, the
Global South as a whole is coming to the fore. According to New York-based The Conference Board, by 2035, emerging economies will grow to make up 61 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product, on purchasing power parity terms. Along with economic growth, the bargaining power and influence of the Global South will continue to expand.
As for China, the
flourishing of Huawei Technologies, despite a stifling technological stranglehold, suggests the United States may have underestimated Chinese technological capacity and resilience. The US-inspired global movement to
decouple or “de-risk” from China looks increasingly futile and counterproductive.
China has a wealth of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) doctorates and is set to outnumber those in the US by three to one by 2025, excluding foreign students. An Australian Strategic Policy Institute tracker in March found that China beat the US in 37 of 44 key cutting-edge technologies, with a substantial lead in all categories, including artificial intelligence, quantum communications and biotechnology.
