David Morris

Opinion | Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan shows how to meet China on its own terms

The Central Asian nation is taking advantage of its strategic location to diversify away from its traditional dependence on Russia

Despite fears of Chinese colonisation, it has succeeded in aligning the belt and road projects with its own development plan, something that can be a lesson for other middle powers

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Vehicles carry components from Chinese green power developer Universal Energy across the Guozigou Bridge in Huocheng county, Xinjiang, bound for the 50 MW wind power project in Kostanay, Kazakhstan. China has increased its outreach towards Kazakhstan in recent years as the Central Asian country is seen as an important trade partner and link in the Belt and Road Initiative. Photo: Xinhua

David Morris

Published: 5:30am, 17 Sep 2023

Following this year’s inaugural China-Central Asia Summit and 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative, is China replacing Russian influence in Central Asia? Kazakhstan confounds the narrative.

As a middle power in a dangerous neighbourhood, Kazakhstan might be expected to be under the influence of China, its much more populous neighbour. Kazakhs have long feared a Chinese invasion, or at the least a slow colonisation.

A closer examination suggests Kazakhstan is taking advantage of its strategic location to diversify its partners and pursue its national interests. It could yield some lessons for other middle powers on how to coexist with China.

After decades of Russian domination as a former republic of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s post-independence leader Nursultan Nazarbayev developed a strategy for a multi-vector foreign policy, seeking to benefit from engagement and cooperation with multiple partners and in overlapping regional initiatives. The new president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has doubled down on Nazarbayev’s strategy.

Kazakhstan has sought closer links with the United States and European Union, including as a member of the Nato Partnership for Peace. It joined the Organization of Turkic States. It also enthusiastically joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and was the location where President Xi Jinping unveiled his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

When it comes to the initiative, Kazakhstan has bent it to its own interests. It offers an opportunity to diversify away from its traditional dependence on Russia. Rather than replacing one dependency with another, Kazakhstan has aligned belt and road projects with its own domestic infrastructure development plan.