Macroscope | What slowing export demand from China and the West means for the rest of Asia
- Most Asian economies will be hit but those with strong local demand, a solid tourism recovery and ability to tap AI demand would feel a softer blow
- As US rate rises taper off, Asian central banks would be freer to cut rates, and if China’s stimulus takes off, the region could see a boost
The export exposure of the six largest Asean economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) to the United States, European Union and China ranges from 34-57 per cent, while that of North Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea sits at 49 per cent. Australia has an export exposure of around 42 per cent.
But it is also important to consider the contribution of exports towards economic growth. Economies with a high export-to-GDP ratio and substantial exposure to the US, EU and China are likely to experience a material drag from a slowdown in external demand.
The softening in capital expenditure will also hurt exports from economies such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, given their reliance on exports of capital goods such as machinery, vehicles and semiconductors.