Opinion | As EU’s Africa plan is undermined by coups, China, the US and Russia sense an opportunity

Name: Military coup in Gabon raises political uncertainty amid strengthening ties with China
Uploaded: 2023-09-04T22:15:12.000Z
Duration: 2 min 2 s
Description: Military coup in Gabon raises political uncertainty amid strengthening ties with China

Once a diplomatic afterthought outside Europe, Africa is now a subject of attention for a range of global powers

Interest in the continent is only likely to grow, especially if its emerging markets fulfil their significant economic potential

Reading Time:3 minutes

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Wagner Group mercenaries patrol a street in northern Mali on January 6, 2022. The Russian mercenary group is part of growing outside interest in Africa despite its continuing political instability and recent rash of military coups overthrowing democratically elected governments, with Russia, China, the United States and Europe all increasing investment and engagement. Photo: AP

Andrew Hammond

Published: 6:15am, 5 Sep 2023

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has previously declared Africa a priority for Brussels. However, the European Union’s policy now lies in tatters after last week’s eighth coup since 2020 in West and Central Africa, this time in Gabon.

Rich in natural resources, much of Africa has widely been seen as key by many in the EU to its goal of decoupling from Russia and “de-risking” from China in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the region had made democratic gains in the past decade to try to rid itself of its reputation for political putsches.

Yet, this EU vision for Africa is threatened by the recent wave of coups, which former French ambassador Gerard Araud puts down, in large part, to European failure, including from France, but also others such as Germany and Italy. Specifically, he cites the absence of any clear European unity over a shared African strategy.

Even the EU’s current chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, has admitted the recent coups are a “big issue for Europe” that is “opening up a new era of instability in a region which is already very fragile”. What Borrell refers to here is how persistent insecurity and corruption is increasingly giving rise to what Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has called a “contagion of autocracy”. In so doing, coups have gained legitimacy as the credibility of democracy has eroded.

The size of the challenge is so big for Europe, in part, because of changing demographics. In the 1960s, the EU’s collective population was twice that of Africa, yet today Africa is almost double the EU’s size, and by 2050 it could be quadruple the size.

02:02

Military coup in Gabon raises political uncertainty amid strengthening ties with China

While the EU has launched what it styled as a bold new Africa plan, this has been undercut for the reasons Araud highlights, and more. To be sure, some in the West foresaw the political risks arising from the desertifying Sahel region and West Africa, launching multiple interventions. But this has not been enough, intensified by a wider failure to meet the continent’s development needs.

Opinion | As EU’s Africa plan is undermined by coups, China, the US and Russia sense an opportunity

Once a diplomatic afterthought outside Europe, Africa is now a subject of attention for a range of global powers Interest in the continent is only likely to grow, especially if its emerging markets fulfil their significant economic potential

Once a diplomatic afterthought outside Europe, Africa is now a subject of attention for a range of global powers

Interest in the continent is only likely to grow, especially if its emerging markets fulfil their significant economic potential