Mark J. Valencia

Opinion | How a submerged Spratlys reef is emerging as a South China Sea flashpoint for China, the Philippines and US

Pressure is building on the US to step in at the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal with the Chinese increasingly brazen and Manila increasingly indignant

By being ambiguous, the US seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation or China to back down – increasing the risks of miscalculation

Reading Time:4 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Mark J. Valencia

Published: 1:00am, 21 Aug 2023

The stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at a China-Philippines disputed submerged reef in the South China Sea. On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon to prevent a Philippine government-chartered boat escorted by coastguard vessels from delivering supplies to troops on Second Thomas Shoal.

Relations were already rattled after a Chinese coastguard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coastguard vessel on a similar resupply mission in February. Although the latest incident is only part of a series of such military clashes between China and the Philippines, it stood out for its brazenness and the US response.

China’s egregious behaviour looked to be a message to the Philippines that it had gone too far in moving militarily closer to the US – and may have broken the back of the camel of restraint on all sides.

At the very least, it has brought China, the Philippines and the US – which has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines – closer to a military clash. Manila has said it would try again soon to resupply its troops, escorted by the coastguard and, some speculate, possibly even US assets. As nationalistic feelings rise in the Philippines and China, something has to give.

Some context is needed. In January 2013, the Philippines filed a complaint against China’s claims in the South China Sea under the dispute settlement mechanism of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). On July 12, 2016, the international arbitration panel ruled, among other things, that Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands is part of the Philippine continental shelf and within its exclusive economic zone.

Therefore, the Philippines has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources there – including a navy vessel it grounded on the shoal in 1999 to bolster its territorial claims. China has rejected The Hague’s ruling and vowed not to abide by it. Upping the ante, it is now renewing its demand that the Philippines remove the ship from the shoal.