Opinion | US presidential election: is there a better option than Biden or Trump for both America and China?
- With polls suggesting Americans want neither Biden nor Trump to run again, popular California governor Gavin Newsom could be the Democrats’ saviour
- Given his pro-China stance and the possibility of a reset in Sino-US-ties, a Newsom run could also be a blessing for Beijing
As the US presidential election approaches, China is no doubt following developments in Washington with interest. Under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Sino-US relations have changed. But who does Beijing prefer?
China’s desire to challenge American hegemony and end the unipolar world attracted a more critical assessment in the Obama years, but it was Trump who exploited growing resentment against China in 2016 to escalate the situation via a trade war.
Should Trump return to the White House next year, it must be assumed that he will be an even bigger China hawk, while the Republican Party is all-in against China – a crucial development as Trump and the party can be expected to peddle anti-China policies even if they are detrimental to American interests, as long as doing so satisfies their voter base.
Trump’s unpredictability is important. He is neither an ideologue nor a pragmatist. Would anyone be shocked if he got up one morning and decided to sever US diplomatic relations with Beijing? Probably not.
Most importantly, in a second term with no further elections to worry about, Trump could become completely unhinged. One must also not forget that, despite claiming to have won the last election, he has also accused China of using the Covid-19 pandemic in a plot against his re-election.
