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Outside In | Like it or not, migrants both rich and poor will shape our economic futures
- Whether due to conflict, global warming or simply rich people trying to improve their lot, migration is almost certainly set to grow
- As many communities, particularly in the rich, developed world, begin to age rapidly, migration is likely to be the only way to replenish populations
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Whether for the uber rich or desperately poor, migration has surged in importance worldwide in the past few years, triggered in particular by Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Whether the issue triggers political controversy or governmental self-congratulation depends on which migrants are knocking on your door.
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But political conflict, global warming and the widespread skill shortages driven by demographic change suggest that migrant flows are likely to become more significant in shaping our economic future. Even if migrants are resented or despised, our need for them will grow, and we need intelligent strategies to aid assimilation.
The debate also depends on whether the migrant is part of the bedraggled poor escaping conflict zones or famines, or a high-net-worth individual being wooed for investment.
Here in Hong Kong, the draconian Covid-19 lockdowns and outflow of perhaps a few hundred thousand people – in the wake of the 2019 street violence and national security law – have triggered anxieties over a brain drain and a possible decline in important economic sectors. Links with mainland China have been strengthened, but perhaps at the expense of our historically indispensable role as an international services hub.
In Europe, in particular in Greece and Italy, as well as in Britain, migration has triggered an almost-daily narrative describing desperate and impoverished migrants from Africa and conflict-torn Middle Eastern countries arriving in small and unseaworthy boats in search of refuge and security. Similarly angry narratives accompany the efforts of thousands of South American migrants to cross the Rio Grande into the United States.
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Strongly anti-migrant sentiments have made this a thoroughly toxic political issue, and given rise to strange and irrational political responses. Most dramatic of all is the UK government’s plan to fly migrants to Rwanda, at an estimated cost of £170,000 (US$218,500) per migrant. The Refugee Council says the annual bill could exceed £1.4 billion.
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